CAJ | 학술논문

为了准确预报我国钢铁工业未来生产结构、能耗和排放情况，构建了钢铁生产、加工、消费、折旧的全生命周期模型和基于人均钢铁存储量的产量预测模型，结合工序能耗和排放特征，针对基准、折旧寿命延长、废钢回收率提升、能源效率提高及综合等五种情景进行了情景预测。中国钢铁产量、能耗和排放会历经一个峰值后下降，电炉短流程会逐渐替代高炉长流程成为主流。流程结构转变是未来中国钢铁行业节能减排的关键“红利”，而节能技术的作用在后期越发凸显。中国钢铁行业要达到2050年减排一半的目标，需结合综合情景实施生产结构调整、废钢回收、节能减排技术推广等相应措施。
위료준학예보아국강철공업미래생산결구、능모화배방정황，구건료강철생산、가공、소비、절구적전생명주기모형화기우인균강철존저량적산량예측모형，결합공서능모화배방특정，침대기준、절구수명연장、폐강회수솔제승、능원효솔제고급종합등오충정경진행료정경예측。중국강철산량、능모화배방회력경일개봉치후하강，전로단류정회축점체대고로장류정성위주류。류정결구전변시미래중국강철행업절능감배적관건“홍리”，이절능기술적작용재후기월발철현。중국강철행업요체도2050년감배일반적목표，수결합종합정경실시생산결구조정、폐강회수、절능감배기술추엄등상응조시。
A whole life cycle model covering steel production, manufacturing, consumption and end-of-life, together with an out-put prediction model on the basis of per capita steel stock, is constructed to accurately forecast the trends of production routes, energy consumption and emissions for Chinese steel industry. Predictions with five scenarios including business as usual scenario, scrap recy-cle rate improvement scenario, steel lifetime improvement scenario, energy intensity improvement scenario and ALL scenario were con-ducted in combination with the analysis of energy use and CO2 emissions of each production unit. The results show that Chinese steel production, energy consumption and CO2 emissions will decline after a peak and the EAF production route will become the mainstream after replacing the BF-BOF route gradually. Meanwhile, production route change is the key “dividend” to cut the future energy con-sumption and emissions. The role of technical improvement will gradually emerge in the latter. To meet the goal of reducing emissions by half in 2050, many strategies, referring to ALL scenario, should be applied to promote the production route adjustment, steel recy-clability and technologies of energy conservation and emission reduction.