CAJ | 학술논문

由于资源禀赋差异，我国乳品的净进口格局很难改变，在乳品进口快速增长的过程中，国内乳品产业格局与消费状况都在发生着深刻变化。面对这一问题，本文从国内乳品需求构成入手，指出在生产调整与需求调整脱节、收入水平的快速增长及流通方式转变是导致供需失衡的三点原因，并在此基础上分析了乳品进口的影响。总体而言，乳品进口的积极效应较为显著，但是也不能据此忽视对散养农户的相关冲击。实际上，包括乳品在内的中国农产品市场是一个快速变化的市场，面临的现实问题往往会被放大，但是最终在新的市场均衡下必定实现相对稳定，因此不必过分悲观。
유우자원품부차이，아국유품적정진구격국흔난개변，재유품진구쾌속증장적과정중，국내유품산업격국여소비상황도재발생착심각변화。면대저일문제，본문종국내유품수구구성입수，지출재생산조정여수구조정탈절、수입수평적쾌속증장급류통방식전변시도치공수실형적삼점원인，병재차기출상분석료유품진구적영향。총체이언，유품진구적적겁효응교위현저，단시야불능거차홀시대산양농호적상관충격。실제상，포괄유품재내적중국농산품시장시일개쾌속변화적시장，면림적현실문제왕왕회피방대，단시최종재신적시장균형하필정실현상대은정，인차불필과분비관。
Due to the resource endowment differences, the net import of China's dairy products is hard to change. In the process of rapid growth in the dairy imports, profound structure changes emerged in the domestic dairy industry and consumption situation. Based on the problem, this paper discussed the domestic dairy demand, pointed out that dairy market imbalance reason including: the production adjustment velocity, income, consumption mode, then analyzed the impact of dairy imports. Overall, effects of dairy imports was obviously positive, but smallholder farmers’ welfare was never ignored. In fact, including dairy products, China's agricultural market developed so fast, the real problem tended to enlarge, eventually in the new market equilibrium, dairy price mechanism would achieve stabilization, anything would not be pessimistic.