CAJ | 학술논문

通过采用省级面板数据分析大专以上文化程度人口比重的变化对第三产业产值占GDP比重的影响，研究自上世纪90年代末期我国实施高等教育扩张政策以来，由于高等教育扩张而引致的高层次人力资本的增加对第三产业发展产生的影响。研究结果表明大专以上文化程度人口比重与第三产业产值占GDP比重之间呈现正U型关系，在拐点之前，大专以上文化程度人口比重的增加对提高第三产业产值占GDP的比重的作用相对较弱，在拐点之后，大专以上文化程度人口比重的增加对提高第三产业产值占GDP的比重的推动作用逐渐加强。
통과채용성급면판수거분석대전이상문화정도인구비중적변화대제삼산업산치점GDP비중적영향，연구자상세기90년대말기아국실시고등교육확장정책이래，유우고등교육확장이인치적고층차인력자본적증가대제삼산업발전산생적영향。연구결과표명대전이상문화정도인구비중여제삼산업산치점GDP비중지간정현정U형관계，재괴점지전，대전이상문화정도인구비중적증가대제고제삼산업산치점GDP적비중적작용상대교약，재괴점지후，대전이상문화정도인구비중적증가대제고제삼산업산치점GDP적비중적추동작용축점가강。
Based on the research of the impact of changes in the proportion of college educated population on the propor-tion of tertiary industry in GDP by using provincial panel data,this paper analyzes the effect of increasing high-level hu-man capital on the development of tertiary industry since the late 1990s when the policy of the expansion of higher educa-tion was adopted.The results show that there is a positive U-shaped relationship between the proportion of college edu-cated population and the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP.The impact of the increasing proportion of college educat-ed population on the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP is relatively weak before the turning point,but the effect is gradually strengthened after the turning point.