华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
EAST CHINA ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
2015年
1期
68-72
,共5页
经济增长%公共支出%随机最优增长模型%HJB方程%值函数
經濟增長%公共支齣%隨機最優增長模型%HJB方程%值函數
경제증장%공공지출%수궤최우증장모형%HJB방정%치함수
economic growth%public expenditure%stochastic optimal growth model%HJB equation%value function
文章采用随机增长模型来研究政府的公共开支的增长与波动对经济增长的影响。首先，文章给出了随机优化问题的理论基础；然后给出了一个随机增长模型，该模型把公共开支与经济增长联系起来，从理论上推导分析公共开支的平均增长和波动对经济增长的影响；接着选取我国31个省份1995-2012年间在科教文化、社会福利、环境保护、交通运输方面的公共支出的平均值和方差为解释变量建立了多元线性回归模型，实证检验表明：这四种类型公共支出的增长和波动可能促进经济增长也可能阻碍经济增长；文章最后给出了相应的分析和建议。
文章採用隨機增長模型來研究政府的公共開支的增長與波動對經濟增長的影響。首先，文章給齣瞭隨機優化問題的理論基礎；然後給齣瞭一箇隨機增長模型，該模型把公共開支與經濟增長聯繫起來，從理論上推導分析公共開支的平均增長和波動對經濟增長的影響；接著選取我國31箇省份1995-2012年間在科教文化、社會福利、環境保護、交通運輸方麵的公共支齣的平均值和方差為解釋變量建立瞭多元線性迴歸模型，實證檢驗錶明：這四種類型公共支齣的增長和波動可能促進經濟增長也可能阻礙經濟增長；文章最後給齣瞭相應的分析和建議。
문장채용수궤증장모형래연구정부적공공개지적증장여파동대경제증장적영향。수선，문장급출료수궤우화문제적이론기출；연후급출료일개수궤증장모형，해모형파공공개지여경제증장련계기래，종이론상추도분석공공개지적평균증장화파동대경제증장적영향；접착선취아국31개성빈1995-2012년간재과교문화、사회복리、배경보호、교통운수방면적공공지출적평균치화방차위해석변량건립료다원선성회귀모형，실증검험표명：저사충류형공공지출적증장화파동가능촉진경제증장야가능조애경제증장；문장최후급출료상응적분석화건의。
The paper uses a stochastic growth model to study the impact of the growth and fluctuation of public ex?penditure on economic growth. Firstly, it provides the theoretical basis of stochastic optimization problems. Second?ly, it gives a stochastic growth model which relates to public expenditure and economic growth, and deduces and analyzes theoretically the impact of the average growth and fluctuation of public expenditure on economic growth. Then it chooses the mean and variance of public expenditure in many fields as explanation variables, which cover science,education and culture,social welfare,environmental protection and transportation in 31 provinces,autono?mous regions and municipalities of China from 1995 to 2012, and builds a multiple linear regression model. The empirical test shows that the growth and fluctuation of the four types of public expenditures may promote or hinder economic growth. Finally,the paper offers the corresponding analyses and suggestions.
