华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
EAST CHINA ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
2015年
1期
55-61
,共7页
煤炭城市%资源尾效%资源诅咒%有限混合回归模型
煤炭城市%資源尾效%資源詛咒%有限混閤迴歸模型
매탄성시%자원미효%자원저주%유한혼합회귀모형
coal city%resource drag%resource curse%limited mixed regression model
传统城市化理论往往强调自然资源对城市发展的正面作用，却对城市化的约束和反向作用问题考虑不够。文章基于“资源尾效”和“资源诅咒”两种假说，利用1997-2012年中国27个典型煤炭城市的数据对其煤炭资源开发与城市化发展的关系进行正负效应检验。结果表明：27个煤炭城市中有16个城市出现“资源尾效”，其尾效数值为0.001755；其余11个城市出现“资源诅咒”，其煤炭资源对城市化发展的影响系数为-0.2072。可见，自然资源的开发强度要处于一个合适的水平，并同时注意资本投入、教育和制度等因素才能最大程度上提高城市化水平。
傳統城市化理論往往彊調自然資源對城市髮展的正麵作用，卻對城市化的約束和反嚮作用問題攷慮不夠。文章基于“資源尾效”和“資源詛咒”兩種假說，利用1997-2012年中國27箇典型煤炭城市的數據對其煤炭資源開髮與城市化髮展的關繫進行正負效應檢驗。結果錶明：27箇煤炭城市中有16箇城市齣現“資源尾效”，其尾效數值為0.001755；其餘11箇城市齣現“資源詛咒”，其煤炭資源對城市化髮展的影響繫數為-0.2072。可見，自然資源的開髮彊度要處于一箇閤適的水平，併同時註意資本投入、教育和製度等因素纔能最大程度上提高城市化水平。
전통성시화이론왕왕강조자연자원대성시발전적정면작용，각대성시화적약속화반향작용문제고필불구。문장기우“자원미효”화“자원저주”량충가설，이용1997-2012년중국27개전형매탄성시적수거대기매탄자원개발여성시화발전적관계진행정부효응검험。결과표명：27개매탄성시중유16개성시출현“자원미효”，기미효수치위0.001755；기여11개성시출현“자원저주”，기매탄자원대성시화발전적영향계수위-0.2072。가견，자연자원적개발강도요처우일개합괄적수평，병동시주의자본투입、교육화제도등인소재능최대정도상제고성시화수평。
The traditional theory of urbanization tends to emphasize that natural resource plays a positive role in the development of urbanization,and fails to give sufficient consideration on the constraints and reverse effect problem to urbanization. Based on the“resource drag”and“resource curse”hypotheses,this paper carries out the positive and negative effect test on the relationship between the coal resource development and the urbanization development by using the panel data of 27 typical coal cities in China from 1997 to 2012. The results show that there are 16 cities presenting“resource drag”,the drag is about 0.001755;while the other 11 cities appearing “resource curse”,the influence coefficient of coal resource to the urbanization development is about -0.2072. Therefore,the intensity of natural resource exploitation should be at an appropriate level,meanwhile paying attention to capital investment,education and institution as well as other factors in order to improve the level of urbanization to the maximum extent.
