CAJ | 학술논문

针对以往研究中旱灾发生概率计算精度不高、权重确定不够客观等不足，利用信息扩散理论和农业旱灾风险指数法，从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和抗旱减灾能力4个方面选取相应的评估指标，基于ARCGIS平台，对河南省农业旱灾风险进行分区分析。结果表明：濮阳和安阳处于致灾因子高危险区；鹤壁和新乡处于孕灾环境高敏感区；焦作和济源处于承灾体高脆弱区；开封、郑州、洛阳处于高抗旱减灾能力区。综合各影响因素的风险指数，安阳、鹤壁和济源处于农业旱灾高风险区。
침대이왕연구중한재발생개솔계산정도불고、권중학정불구객관등불족，이용신식확산이론화농업한재풍험지수법，종치재인자、잉재배경、승재체화항한감재능력4개방면선취상응적평고지표，기우ARCGIS평태，대하남성농업한재풍험진행분구분석。결과표명：복양화안양처우치재인자고위험구；학벽화신향처우잉재배경고민감구；초작화제원처우승재체고취약구；개봉、정주、락양처우고항한감재능력구。종합각영향인소적풍험지수，안양、학벽화제원처우농업한재고풍험구。
Problems are found in previous research that it tends to be inaccurate in calculating the occurrence rate of drought,and that the weight determination is not objective to be reliable. In the present study,ARCGIS software is used to analyze the risk of agricultural drought in different districts of Henan Province. By applying the information diffusion theory and the agricultural drought risk index method,assessment indexes are selected from the perspectives of disaster inducing factors,hazard inducing environment,hazard affected body,and the capacity of drought relief. The results show that Puyang and Anyang are in the highly risk area of disaster inducing factors;Hebi and Xinxiang are in the highly sensitive area of hazard inducing environment;Jiaozuo and Jiyuan are in the highly vulnerable area of hazard affected body and that Kaifeng,Zhengzhou and Luoyang are in the highly capable area of drought relief. In summary,taking all the factors of risk index into consideration,it can be concluded that Anyang,Hebi,and Jiyuan are in the highly risk area of agricultural drought.