CAJ | 학술논문

【目的】准确预测切花百合生产的上市期。【方法】根据切花百合（Lilium Oriental Hybrids cv．＇Sorbonne＇）的生长发育对光温效应的反应，利用不同定植日期的试验数据，建立以光温指数（photo-thermal index，PTI）为尺度参数的切花百合生育期预测模型，并运用独立的数据对其进行验证。【结果】结果表明，模型对切花百合定植－出苗、出苗－展叶、展叶－现蕾、现蕾－采收各生育期持续时间预测值与实测值之间的回归估计标准误差（root mean squared error，RMSE）分别为1．58、2．23、2．54、1．58 d；与有效积温法（RMSE 分别为4．74、3．54、6．21、5．38 d）为尺度的发育模型相比，模型的预测精度显著提高。【结论】该模型的预测结果能为切花百合的生产和调控提供理论依据。
【목적】준학예측절화백합생산적상시기。【방법】근거절화백합（Lilium Oriental Hybrids cv．＇Sorbonne＇）적생장발육대광온효응적반응，이용불동정식일기적시험수거，건립이광온지수（photo-thermal index，PTI）위척도삼수적절화백합생육기예측모형，병운용독립적수거대기진행험증。【결과】결과표명，모형대절화백합정식－출묘、출묘－전협、전협－현뢰、현뢰－채수각생육기지속시간예측치여실측치지간적회귀고계표준오차（root mean squared error，RMSE）분별위1．58、2．23、2．54、1．58 d；여유효적온법（RMSE 분별위4．74、3．54、6．21、5．38 d）위척도적발육모형상비，모형적예측정도현저제고。【결론】해모형적예측결과능위절화백합적생산화조공제공이론의거。
Objective]The aim of this study was to accurately predict the harvest period of cut lily.[Method]Based on photo-thermal responses of cut lily,experimental data from different planting dates were used to develop a model for development of Lilium Oriental Hybrids cv.'Sor-bonne'.Then,the model was tested by independent experimental date.[Results]The results showed that root mean squared error (RMSE)between simulated and observed data (planting, sprouting,leaf unfolding,visible bud and harvest)were 1.58,2.23,2.54 and 1.58,respective-ly.Compared with effective accumulated temperature method (RMSE 4.74,3.54,6.21 and 5.38),the development model based photo-thermal index increased the simulation accuracy signif-icantly.[Conclusion]The model developed in this study can provide a theoretical foundation for predicting the harvest period of cut lily.