CAJ | 학술논문

对出行者活动-出行计划行为的研究有助于进一步解析出行者的行为决策机理，也是制定和实施交通管理政策的前提。本文扩展了传统的基于单一删失事件的生存风险研究，将竞争风险模型应用于出行者活动时间分配行为的研究，基于吉林市居民出行数据的分析，提取出行者制定活动计划的影响因素，通过敏感性分析，解析出行者在连续时间轴上活动参与类型与活动持续时间的联合选择过程。结果表明：出行者N次与N+1次活动之间存在相互联系、相互制约关系，且关系强度又随着参与活动类型的不同而存在显著差异，竞争风险模型能有效应用于这些差异性的分析，丰富和扩展了出行行为的分析理论与方法。
대출행자활동-출행계화행위적연구유조우진일보해석출행자적행위결책궤리，야시제정화실시교통관리정책적전제。본문확전료전통적기우단일산실사건적생존풍험연구，장경쟁풍험모형응용우출행자활동시간분배행위적연구，기우길림시거민출행수거적분석，제취출행자제정활동계화적영향인소，통과민감성분석，해석출행자재련속시간축상활동삼여류형여활동지속시간적연합선택과정。결과표명：출행자N차여N+1차활동지간존재상호련계、상호제약관계，차관계강도우수착삼여활동류형적불동이존재현저차이，경쟁풍험모형능유효응용우저사차이성적분석，봉부화확전료출행행위적분석이론여방법。
The study of the schedule planning of travelers helps to understand the process of travelers’ decisions. Also it is the premise of enacting and implementing traffic management strategy and policy. A competing risk hazard model, which describes simultaneously the duration of the present activity and the choice of the next activity, is presented. The application of the model extended to the field of traditional hazard models which account for only one delete events. The model is estimated based on the survey data of Jilin City, China. The covariates used in the model represent factors that affect activity scheduling. The estimated model suggesting that there is interrelated and constraint relationship between N and N+1 times activities of travelers, Moreover, the strength of that relations are change significantly with type of activities. The competing risk models used in this paper are a useful tool for describing such differences. These fundamental works is help for enriching and expanding the travel behavior analysis theory and method.