CAJ | 학술논문

在高速铁路调度指挥系统中，列调人员通过调度终端来指挥铁路现场的生产活动，调度员的操作直接影响列车的运行.本文引入核电工业中的THERP理论，结合列调操作特征来计算静态条件下列调操作失误率及其置信区间；并结合马尔科夫链原理，建立状态转移率方程，通过拉普拉斯变换得出单影响因子作用下列调可靠性的状态概率变化规律.最后，以执行列控限速任务为例，得出列调的静态失误率及压力影响因子作用下人因动态可靠性变化规律.研究结果表明：在压力适中的情况下，列控限速执行失败率最低，为0.0104.
재고속철로조도지휘계통중，렬조인원통과조도종단래지휘철로현장적생산활동，조도원적조작직접영향열차적운행.본문인입핵전공업중적THERP이론，결합렬조조작특정래계산정태조건하렬조조작실오솔급기치신구간；병결합마이과부련원리，건립상태전이솔방정，통과랍보랍사변환득출단영향인자작용하렬조가고성적상태개솔변화규률.최후，이집행렬공한속임무위례，득출렬조적정태실오솔급압력영향인자작용하인인동태가고성변화규률.연구결과표명：재압력괄중적정황하，렬공한속집행실패솔최저，위0.0104.
In the dispatching system of high-speed railway, the dispatching terminal equipment is used by dispatchers who manage the running high-speed trains and related production activities, so reliability of dispatchers is directly related to the safety of high-speed trains. In this paper, THERP theory is introduced from nuclear plant industry to calculate the failure rate and the corresponding confidence intervals of dispatchers under static conditions, combining with the characteristics of their job content. According to the Markov chain theory, then the probability state transferring equations is established to study law of the dispatcher reliability under a certain influencing factor, by Laplace transform. Finally, the task about setting train speed limitation done by the dispatcher is taken for an example to analyze the static and dynamic reliability, when the person is under the influence of different level of pressure. The results show that human error rate about setting train speed limitation is lowest with 0.010 4 under medium pressure state.