CAJ | 학술논문

基于岷江流域近52年（1961-2012）的径流与气象数据，采用线性回归、非参数检验(Mann-Kendall法)、Morlet小波变换、Pearson相关分析等方法，对岷江流域径流、气温、降水等主要水文气象要素进行分析.结果显示：（1）近52年来岷江流域年平均气温总体呈明显增长趋势，年均降水量呈显著下降趋势，年均气温以0.15℃/10 a的速率增加，年均降水量以20.18 mm/10 a的速率减少，区域气候的暖干化趋势明显.（2）岷江流域多年径流量呈显著减少趋势，减少速率为20.38×108 m3/10 a，流域径流量在1968年左右出现减少突变，20世纪70年代早期开始径流量增加，1993年左右又发生一次减少突变，径流显著减少.（3）通过对年径流量序列进行Morlet小波转换分析发现，岷江流域径流量主要存在6～9 a的年际周期、17 a和28 a的年代际周期，径流量总体特征是向干枯化趋势发展.（4）通过年径流量与气象因素的相关分析发现，区域降水量是影响岷江流域径流减少的主导因子，在该流域降水量减小的背景下，气温升高进一步加剧了流域径流量的减小；流域径流对暖干气候的响应表现为径流量减少.
기우민강류역근52년（1961-2012）적경류여기상수거，채용선성회귀、비삼수검험(Mann-Kendall법)、Morlet소파변환、Pearson상관분석등방법，대민강류역경류、기온、강수등주요수문기상요소진행분석.결과현시：（1）근52년래민강류역년평균기온총체정명현증장추세，년균강수량정현저하강추세，년균기온이0.15℃/10 a적속솔증가，년균강수량이20.18 mm/10 a적속솔감소，구역기후적난간화추세명현.（2）민강류역다년경류량정현저감소추세，감소속솔위20.38×108 m3/10 a，류역경류량재1968년좌우출현감소돌변，20세기70년대조기개시경류량증가，1993년좌우우발생일차감소돌변，경류현저감소.（3）통과대년경류량서렬진행Morlet소파전환분석발현，민강류역경류량주요존재6～9 a적년제주기、17 a화28 a적년대제주기，경류량총체특정시향간고화추세발전.（4）통과년경류량여기상인소적상관분석발현，구역강수량시영향민강류역경류감소적주도인자，재해류역강수량감소적배경하，기온승고진일보가극료류역경류량적감소；류역경류대난간기후적향응표현위경류량감소.
Based on the runoff and meteorological data of Minjiang River Basin in recent 52 years (1961-2012), the run?off, temperature and precipitation status were analyzed by using methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall non-para?metric statistical tests, Morlet wavelet and Pearson Correlation Coefficient. Results showed as follows: ( 1) Temperature presented an increasing trend over the last 52 years in Minjiang River Basin, the temperature increase rate being 0.15°C/10a, precipitation presented a decreasing trend, the precipitation decrease rate being 20.18 mm/10a, and climatic warm-drying trend was apparent. (2) Runoff presented a significant decreasing trend in recent 52 years in Minjiang River basin, the runoff decrease rate was 20.38×108 m3/10a, the runoff witnessed reduce mutation around 1968, and increased in early 70??s, while around 1993 the runoff reduce mutation occurred again, with the runoff decreasing significantly since 1990??s. (3) The annual runoff was analyzed by Morlet wavelet transform method and found that the runoff has a 6~9 years periodic oscillation, a 17 years and 28 decadal periodic oscillations, with an obvious drying trend in Minjiang River Basin. (4) The correlation between annual runoff and meteorological factors was analyzed by using method of Pearson correlation coeffi?cient, finding that precipitation was the main factor which led to the runoff reduction in Minjiang River basin, the rising temperatures aggravated the reduction of runoff, and the response of the runoff to warm-drying climate was the perfor?mance of runoff reduction.