CAJ | 학술논문

为切实保障有源重要用户的利益，挖掘供电过程中可能诱发用户安全、优质性和效益这3个方面需求不被满足从而产生风险的供电风险因素，归纳分类形成供电风险元。基于风险元传递思想，利用梯形相似模糊数建立了供电风险与用户需求风险之间的映射关系，定义了期望值函数使模糊数精确化，通过专家意见得到用户需求风险指标下的风险评估矩阵。考虑到用户需求风险指标之间具有很高的相关度，采用马氏距离代替传统的欧式距离求解每个供电风险元与正负理想解之间的距离，计算出每个风险元的风险值，根据TOPSIS思想对供电风险元威胁大小进行排序，排序结果可以很好地帮助供电公司辨识重要风险，制定规避策略。最后通过对比分析证明了所提方法的科学性和合理性。
위절실보장유원중요용호적이익，알굴공전과정중가능유발용호안전、우질성화효익저3개방면수구불피만족종이산생풍험적공전풍험인소，귀납분류형성공전풍험원。기우풍험원전체사상，이용제형상사모호수건립료공전풍험여용호수구풍험지간적영사관계，정의료기망치함수사모호수정학화，통과전가의견득도용호수구풍험지표하적풍험평고구진。고필도용호수구풍험지표지간구유흔고적상관도，채용마씨거리대체전통적구식거리구해매개공전풍험원여정부이상해지간적거리，계산출매개풍험원적풍험치，근거TOPSIS사상대공전풍험원위협대소진행배서，배서결과가이흔호지방조공전공사변식중요풍험，제정규피책략。최후통과대비분석증명료소제방법적과학성화합이성。
To protect the interests of important consumers equipped with standby power supplies, the risk factor of power supply that may be happened due to the dissatisfaction of consumers’ demands in the respects of security, high quality and benefit during the power supply process are concluded and classified to form power supply risk elements. Based on the thought of risk element transfer and utilizing trapezoidal fuzzy number the mapping relation between power supply risk and consumers’ demand risk is established and the concept of the expected value function is defined to make the fuzzy number precise, and based on the expert opinion the risk assessment matrix under consumers’ demand risk indices is attained. Considering the high correlation among consumers’ demand risk indices, the Mahalanobis distance is utilized to substitute traditional Euclidean distance to solve the distance between each power supply risk element and positive- and negative-ideal-solution and calculate the risk value of each risk element, and then based on the thought of TOPSIS the threat levels of power supply risk elements are sorted and the sorting result is very helpful to power supply companies to identify principle risks and draft the risk aversion strategy. The reasonableness of the proposed method is proved by the results of contrastive analysis.