华南地震
華南地震
화남지진
SOUTH CHINA JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY
2014年
3期
18-23
,共6页
张清秀%倪小寅%袁丽文%陈莹%程庆斌
張清秀%倪小寅%袁麗文%陳瑩%程慶斌
장청수%예소인%원려문%진형%정경빈
地震预测%地震危险性分析%加卸载响应比
地震預測%地震危險性分析%加卸載響應比
지진예측%지진위험성분석%가사재향응비
Earthquake Prediction%Seismic hazard analysis%Load-unload response ratio
对台湾地区加卸载响应比沿时间进程的发展趋势进行分析,结果显示:台湾MS≥7.0级地震前加卸载响应比可能出现高值异常或小幅度的突升现象;超过50%的7级强震前,加卸载响应比出现趋势上升异常,未来地震震级与趋势异常上升幅度、异常持续时间之间呈线性正相关,即异常持续时间越长,其上升的异常幅度也越大,未来地震的震级也越大。出现趋势上升异常的地震震中均处在北纬24°以南的台湾东带区域。
對檯灣地區加卸載響應比沿時間進程的髮展趨勢進行分析,結果顯示:檯灣MS≥7.0級地震前加卸載響應比可能齣現高值異常或小幅度的突升現象;超過50%的7級彊震前,加卸載響應比齣現趨勢上升異常,未來地震震級與趨勢異常上升幅度、異常持續時間之間呈線性正相關,即異常持續時間越長,其上升的異常幅度也越大,未來地震的震級也越大。齣現趨勢上升異常的地震震中均處在北緯24°以南的檯灣東帶區域。
대태만지구가사재향응비연시간진정적발전추세진행분석,결과현시:태만MS≥7.0급지진전가사재향응비가능출현고치이상혹소폭도적돌승현상;초과50%적7급강진전,가사재향응비출현추세상승이상,미래지진진급여추세이상상승폭도、이상지속시간지간정선성정상관,즉이상지속시간월장,기상승적이상폭도야월대,미래지진적진급야월대。출현추세상승이상적지진진중균처재북위24°이남적태만동대구역。
This paper analyzes the time trend of load-unload response ratio in Taiwan. The results show that the load-unload response ratio would present abnormal high values or small jumps before the earthquakes with MS≥7.0 in Taiwan; before over 50 percents of these earthquakes occurred, the load-unload response ratio showed abnormal rise, the anomalous amplitude and duration was linear positive correlation with the magnitude of the following earthquake, which means that the longer the abnormity continues, the larger the anomalous amplitude, and the stronger the following earthquake. All the earthquakes, which have abnormal rises before, happened in south of 24 north latitude of east Taiwan.