水资源与水工程学报
水資源與水工程學報
수자원여수공정학보
JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES AND WATER ENGINEERING
2014年
6期
169-175
,共7页
供%需水量预测%水资源供需平衡分析%指标分析法%专家咨询概率法%马莲河流域
供%需水量預測%水資源供需平衡分析%指標分析法%專傢咨詢概率法%馬蓮河流域
공%수수량예측%수자원공수평형분석%지표분석법%전가자순개솔법%마련하류역
forecast of water supply and demand%balance analysis of water resources supply and de-mand%indicator analysis method%expert advisory probabilistic method%Malian river basin
根据马莲河流域地形地貌特点、水资源分布状况及社会经济、能源产业的发展情况，将流域系统概化为5个水资源分区，并依据2020和2030年的社会经济发展速度和水利工程建设速度、分为12个方案，采用指标分析法对12个方案进行供、需水量预测。结果表明：2020年最大概率方案为社会经济高速发展、水利工程低速建设方案，流域总需水量6．45亿m3，供水量4．67亿m3，缺水率27．56％。2030年的最优方案为2020年社会经济高速发展、2030年社会经济低速发展，水利工程高速建设方案，流域总需水量10．33亿m3，供水量8．72亿m3，缺水率15．62％。按照供需平衡方案进行水资源分配，可促使流域综合缺水率逐年减少，促使流域的水资源能够更好地为高速发展的社会经济服务，从而提高流域的供水、用水水平，为流域生产、生活安全提供强有力的保障和支撑。
根據馬蓮河流域地形地貌特點、水資源分佈狀況及社會經濟、能源產業的髮展情況，將流域繫統概化為5箇水資源分區，併依據2020和2030年的社會經濟髮展速度和水利工程建設速度、分為12箇方案，採用指標分析法對12箇方案進行供、需水量預測。結果錶明：2020年最大概率方案為社會經濟高速髮展、水利工程低速建設方案，流域總需水量6．45億m3，供水量4．67億m3，缺水率27．56％。2030年的最優方案為2020年社會經濟高速髮展、2030年社會經濟低速髮展，水利工程高速建設方案，流域總需水量10．33億m3，供水量8．72億m3，缺水率15．62％。按照供需平衡方案進行水資源分配，可促使流域綜閤缺水率逐年減少，促使流域的水資源能夠更好地為高速髮展的社會經濟服務，從而提高流域的供水、用水水平，為流域生產、生活安全提供彊有力的保障和支撐。
근거마련하류역지형지모특점、수자원분포상황급사회경제、능원산업적발전정황，장류역계통개화위5개수자원분구，병의거2020화2030년적사회경제발전속도화수리공정건설속도、분위12개방안，채용지표분석법대12개방안진행공、수수량예측。결과표명：2020년최대개솔방안위사회경제고속발전、수리공정저속건설방안，류역총수수량6．45억m3，공수량4．67억m3，결수솔27．56％。2030년적최우방안위2020년사회경제고속발전、2030년사회경제저속발전，수리공정고속건설방안，류역총수수량10．33억m3，공수량8．72억m3，결수솔15．62％。안조공수평형방안진행수자원분배，가촉사류역종합결수솔축년감소，촉사류역적수자원능구경호지위고속발전적사회경제복무，종이제고류역적공수、용수수평，위류역생산、생활안전제공강유력적보장화지탱。
According to the characteristics of landforms ,distribution situation of water resource , society e-conomy and development state of energy industry in Malian river basin ,the paper generalized the basin in-to 5 water resource partitions .Then it formed 12 plans according to the development speed of society econ-omy and the construction speed of water conservancy project in 2020 and 2030 .It predicted the quantities of water supply and demand of 12 plans by use of indicators analysis .The analysis indicated that the maxi-mum probability plan in 2020 is the program that social economy is quickly developed and water conser-vancy projects is slowlly constructed .The total amount of water requirement and supply is 645 million and 467 million cubic meter .The water shortage rate is 27 .56%.In 2030 , the maximum probability plan will be the program of social economy with high-speed development in 2020 and with low-speed development in 2030 ,and water conservancy projects with high-speed construction .The total amount of water require-ment and supply is 1033 and 872 million cubic meter ,and water shortage rate is 15 .62%.The allocation scheme of water resources according to supply and demand balance can decrease the integrated water shortage rate year after year and impel the water resource of basin to better service for the socio-economic high-speed development , and improve the level of water supply and water use .The result can provide strong protection and support for production and life safety in the basin .
