CAJ | 학술논문

利用Kendall秩次相关检验法、R／S分析法、游程分析法和马尔可夫过程分析法对中部引黄工程水源地年径流量长期演变规律进行分析。黄河河曲站年径流量时序在1978－2010年整个时段内呈现出显著的减少趋势，并且可以预测出未来河曲站的年径流量将继续呈较显著减少趋势；河曲站连丰、连平和连枯状态的出现概率都随连续年数的增加而减小；在长期丰枯演化过程中，偏枯年的重现时间最短，偏丰年的重现时间最长。中部引黄工程水源地年径流量未来呈较显著的减少趋势；在年径流长期丰枯演化过程中，出现偏枯年的可能性较大。本研究旨在为黄河水资源的可持续开发利用和中部引黄工程供需调节提供科学依据。
이용Kendall질차상관검험법、R／S분석법、유정분석법화마이가부과정분석법대중부인황공정수원지년경류량장기연변규률진행분석。황하하곡참년경류량시서재1978－2010년정개시단내정현출현저적감소추세，병차가이예측출미래하곡참적년경류량장계속정교현저감소추세；하곡참련봉、련평화련고상태적출현개솔도수련속년수적증가이감소；재장기봉고연화과정중，편고년적중현시간최단，편봉년적중현시간최장。중부인황공정수원지년경류량미래정교현저적감소추세；재년경류장기봉고연화과정중，출현편고년적가능성교대。본연구지재위황하수자원적가지속개발이용화중부인황공정공수조절제공과학의거。
By use of Kendall trend test method , R/S analysis method , run-length analysis method and Markov process analysis method , the paper analyzed the long-term evolution law of annual runoff at the water source of central Yellow River diversion project .The annual runoff timing at Hequ station of the Yellow River showed a significant decreasing trend during the whole period 1978 to 2010 .According to the result,the runoff will continue to show a more significant decreasing trend in the future .The occur-rence probability of continuous multi-annual high flow state , normal flow state and low flow state de-creased with the increase of consecutive years .In the long-term evolution process of high and low state , the reproduce time of partial low flow year is the shortest and the reproduce time of partial high flow year is the longest .The annual runoff at water source of the central Yellow River diversion project will show a more significant decreasing trend in the future;In the process of high and low evolution of annual runoff , it is more likely to appear low flow year .The study can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable devel-opment and utilization of water resources on the Yellow River and the regulation of supply and demand of the central Yellow River diversion project .