水资源与水工程学报
水資源與水工程學報
수자원여수공정학보
JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES AND WATER ENGINEERING
2014年
6期
76-81
,共6页
可供水量%需水预测%耗水预测%供需平衡%嵩明县
可供水量%需水預測%耗水預測%供需平衡%嵩明縣
가공수량%수수예측%모수예측%공수평형%숭명현
amount of water supply%demand prediction%consumption prediction%balance of supply and demand%Songming County
区域发展规划是需水预测的依据，而水资源供需平衡分析是检验区域发展规划是否合理可行的重要手段。本文以嵩明县水资源开发利用规划和社会经济发展规划为基础，进行可供水量、需水量和耗水量预测及供需平衡分析。结果表明：嵩明县需水量呈增加趋势，但耗水量呈减少趋势；按平水年需新水量计算，现状年（2012）和远期规划水平年（2030）需水量略超出可供水量，而近期（2020）和中期（2025）规划水平年可供水量大于需水量，而按P＝75％需新水量计算则各水平年均有不同程度的缺水；各水平年耗水量均小于可供水量，说明在充分考虑水资源二次利用的情况下，可供水量均能够支撑规划的社会经济发展规模和水平。在落实规划用水效率前提下，嵩明县社会经济发展规划与水资源开发利用规划基本相适应。
區域髮展規劃是需水預測的依據，而水資源供需平衡分析是檢驗區域髮展規劃是否閤理可行的重要手段。本文以嵩明縣水資源開髮利用規劃和社會經濟髮展規劃為基礎，進行可供水量、需水量和耗水量預測及供需平衡分析。結果錶明：嵩明縣需水量呈增加趨勢，但耗水量呈減少趨勢；按平水年需新水量計算，現狀年（2012）和遠期規劃水平年（2030）需水量略超齣可供水量，而近期（2020）和中期（2025）規劃水平年可供水量大于需水量，而按P＝75％需新水量計算則各水平年均有不同程度的缺水；各水平年耗水量均小于可供水量，說明在充分攷慮水資源二次利用的情況下，可供水量均能夠支撐規劃的社會經濟髮展規模和水平。在落實規劃用水效率前提下，嵩明縣社會經濟髮展規劃與水資源開髮利用規劃基本相適應。
구역발전규화시수수예측적의거，이수자원공수평형분석시검험구역발전규화시부합리가행적중요수단。본문이숭명현수자원개발이용규화화사회경제발전규화위기출，진행가공수량、수수량화모수량예측급공수평형분석。결과표명：숭명현수수량정증가추세，단모수량정감소추세；안평수년수신수량계산，현상년（2012）화원기규화수평년（2030）수수량략초출가공수량，이근기（2020）화중기（2025）규화수평년가공수량대우수수량，이안P＝75％수신수량계산칙각수평년균유불동정도적결수；각수평년모수량균소우가공수량，설명재충분고필수자원이차이용적정황하，가공수량균능구지탱규화적사회경제발전규모화수평。재락실규화용수효솔전제하，숭명현사회경제발전규화여수자원개발이용규화기본상괄응。
Regional development plan is the basis of water demand prediction .The balance analysis of supply and demand of water resources is an important mean to test whether the regional development plan -ning is feasible .Based on the development and utilization plan of water resources and social economy de-velopment planning in Songming county , the paper analyzed water supply , water demand ,and water sup-ply and demand balance .The results show that water demand presents a trend of increase ,but water con-sume shows a trend of decrease;according to the calculation of new water demand in flat water year ,the a-mount of water demand is slightly more than the amount of water supply in 2012 and 2030 .However , the amount of water demand is less than the amount of water supply in 2020 and 2025 ,but in accordance with P =75%required to calculate new water demand , every level year has different degrees short of water resources;water consumption is less than water supply in each year which indicates the amount of water supply is completely capable of supporting the scale and level of social economy development planning under the full consideration of the secondary utilization of water resources .In the implementation of plan-ning water-use efficiency , the social economy development planning is adaptable to the utilization of wa-ter resources planning in Songming county .
