水资源与水工程学报
水資源與水工程學報
수자원여수공정학보
JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES AND WATER ENGINEERING
2014年
6期
24-28,33
,共6页
降水指数%线性趋势%Mann-Kendall检验%黄土高原
降水指數%線性趨勢%Mann-Kendall檢驗%黃土高原
강수지수%선성추세%Mann-Kendall검험%황토고원
precipitation index%linear trend%Mann-Kendall test%loess plateau
以位于陕北黄土高原地区的6个气象站点1959-2011年逐日降水数据为基础,选择降水量、降水强度、日最大降水、有降水日数、中雨日数和大雨日数6个降水指数,利用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法及IDW空间插值方法,分析了陕北黄土高原地区近53 a降水时空变化特征。结果表明:①陕北黄土高原地区有降水日数减少趋势显著,降水强度增加趋势显著,其它指数均呈不显著的减少趋势。1960-1969年为陕北黄土高原地区降水多发期,而1990-1999年为匮乏期。②陕北黄土高原地区降水强度于1984年发生增加突变,有降水日数于1980年发生减少突变。③陕北黄土高原地区降水强度以延安地区为高值中心,吴起为低值中心;其它指数均以洛川为高值中心,横山为低值中心,呈自南而北的递减规律,表现出对季风气候过程的响应。有降水日数持续减少和降水强度持续增加将会导致陕北黄土高原地区土壤侵蚀加剧,应予以重视。
以位于陝北黃土高原地區的6箇氣象站點1959-2011年逐日降水數據為基礎,選擇降水量、降水彊度、日最大降水、有降水日數、中雨日數和大雨日數6箇降水指數,利用線性趨勢法、Mann-Kendall突變檢驗法及IDW空間插值方法,分析瞭陝北黃土高原地區近53 a降水時空變化特徵。結果錶明:①陝北黃土高原地區有降水日數減少趨勢顯著,降水彊度增加趨勢顯著,其它指數均呈不顯著的減少趨勢。1960-1969年為陝北黃土高原地區降水多髮期,而1990-1999年為匱乏期。②陝北黃土高原地區降水彊度于1984年髮生增加突變,有降水日數于1980年髮生減少突變。③陝北黃土高原地區降水彊度以延安地區為高值中心,吳起為低值中心;其它指數均以洛川為高值中心,橫山為低值中心,呈自南而北的遞減規律,錶現齣對季風氣候過程的響應。有降水日數持續減少和降水彊度持續增加將會導緻陝北黃土高原地區土壤侵蝕加劇,應予以重視。
이위우협북황토고원지구적6개기상참점1959-2011년축일강수수거위기출,선택강수량、강수강도、일최대강수、유강수일수、중우일수화대우일수6개강수지수,이용선성추세법、Mann-Kendall돌변검험법급IDW공간삽치방법,분석료협북황토고원지구근53 a강수시공변화특정。결과표명:①협북황토고원지구유강수일수감소추세현저,강수강도증가추세현저,기타지수균정불현저적감소추세。1960-1969년위협북황토고원지구강수다발기,이1990-1999년위궤핍기。②협북황토고원지구강수강도우1984년발생증가돌변,유강수일수우1980년발생감소돌변。③협북황토고원지구강수강도이연안지구위고치중심,오기위저치중심;기타지수균이락천위고치중심,횡산위저치중심,정자남이북적체감규률,표현출대계풍기후과정적향응。유강수일수지속감소화강수강도지속증가장회도치협북황토고원지구토양침식가극,응여이중시。
Based on the data of daily precipitation in 6 meteorological stations at loess plateau area of north-ern Shaanxi from 1959 to 2011 , the paper chose six precipitation indexes including rainfall , intensity of rainfall, the maximum rainfall of day , the number of day rainfall , days of moderate rain and heavy rain , and used methods of linear trend , Mann-Kendall abrupt test , and IDW spatial interpolation to analyze the Characteristics of spatial -temporal change of precipitation in loess plateau area of northern Shaanxi in 53 years.Results show that:①the number of day rainfall decreases obviously while the intensity of rainfall in-creases obviously .Other precipitation indexes decrease insignificantly .Precipitation in the area occurred fre-quently in 1960s and was shortage in 1990s.②The intensity of precipitation occured abrupt increase in 1984 , while the number of day rainfall happened abrupt decrease in 1980 .③The high value center of in-tensity of precipitation is in Yan'an, while low value center is in Wuqi .However, the high value center of other indexes is in Luochuan ,while the low value center is in Hengshan .Those value center of precipitation indexes show decreased tendency from south to north , which reflect the response to monsoon process .The decrease of number of rainfall day and the increase of intensity of precipitation will lead to soil erosion in lo -ess plateau which can be taken attention .