CAJ | 학술논문

目的：分析甘肃省乙型脑炎（J E ）的季节性规律，为制定防控措施提供依据。方法利用甘肃省疾病预防控制中心1962－2010年疫情资料和法定传染病报告资料，用集中度和圆分布法，分析乙脑季节性特征。结果甘肃省1962－2010年JE季节性分布的集中度M值为0．8259。经圆分布样本平均角的Rayleigh 检验，Z＝3506．0925，P＜0．01。平均角α所对应的日期即JE的集中发病高峰日为8月30日，发病高峰期的95％可信区间为7月22日至10月7日。结论使用集中度和圆分布有助于我们更准确地掌握乙脑流行的高峰季节。甘肃省JE发病有很强的季节性，7月底至10月初为流行高峰期。
목적：분석감숙성을형뇌염（J E ）적계절성규률，위제정방공조시제공의거。방법이용감숙성질병예방공제중심1962－2010년역정자료화법정전염병보고자료，용집중도화원분포법，분석을뇌계절성특정。결과감숙성1962－2010년JE계절성분포적집중도M치위0．8259。경원분포양본평균각적Rayleigh 검험，Z＝3506．0925，P＜0．01。평균각α소대응적일기즉JE적집중발병고봉일위8월30일，발병고봉기적95％가신구간위7월22일지10월7일。결론사용집중도화원분포유조우아문경준학지장악을뇌류행적고봉계절。감숙성JE발병유흔강적계절성，7월저지10월초위류행고봉기。
ABSTRACT:The seasonal characteristics of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in Gansu Province in 1962-2010 were analyzed in order to provide reference for making strategies of disease control and prevention .The JE data is the Epidemic Data between 1962 and 2003 from Gansu CDC ,and National Notifiable Diseases Registry System (NNDRS ,2004-2010) .Concentration ra‐tio and circular distribution method were used in this study .Results showed that the M‐value of the seasonal distribution of JE in 1962-2010 was 0 .825 9 .The corresponding peak date of JE was the 30th August (95% CI:22 July to 7 October) .The Z value of Rayleigh test was 3 506 .092 5 (P<0 .01) .In conclusion ,the concentration and circular distribution method helps us to grasp the JE epidemic peak season more accurately .There were significant seasona1 characteristics for JE in Gansu Province and the epidemic peak was from late July to early October .