技术经济与管理研究
技術經濟與管理研究
기술경제여관리연구
TECHNOECONOMICS & MANAGEMENT RESEARCH
2015年
1期
112-116
,共5页
交通基础设施%物流业%区域经济%农村经济
交通基礎設施%物流業%區域經濟%農村經濟
교통기출설시%물류업%구역경제%농촌경제
Transport infrastructure%Logistics%Regional economy%Rural economy
鉴于通过物流业发展来解释我国区域经济发展这一主题存在的一些不足，文章在综述相关研究的基础上提出了二者之间存在非线性关系的观点。利用门槛回归模型，分别以铁路和高速公路路网密度作为交通基础设施门槛变量，证实了其在物流业提升区域经济发展水平这一运行机制上存在着非线性的调节作用。研究结果表明：2004-2013年间，铁路基础设施作为门槛，二者作用机制表现出了“由强转弱”的相关关系；高速公路基础设施作为门槛，二者作用机制表现出了显著的“倒U”型相关关系；在发展低水平阶段，铁路作为物流业的主要运输方式，对区域经济影响作用强大，随后作用逐渐减弱；公路在中等水平阶段明显高于低水平阶段；在其高水平发展阶段，促进作用略低于中等水平阶段。由于交通基础设施门槛效应的存在，文章建议应系统、动态地看待我国交通基础设施作用和因地制宜地制定物流业发展政策，推动区域经济的有效发展。
鑒于通過物流業髮展來解釋我國區域經濟髮展這一主題存在的一些不足，文章在綜述相關研究的基礎上提齣瞭二者之間存在非線性關繫的觀點。利用門檻迴歸模型，分彆以鐵路和高速公路路網密度作為交通基礎設施門檻變量，證實瞭其在物流業提升區域經濟髮展水平這一運行機製上存在著非線性的調節作用。研究結果錶明：2004-2013年間，鐵路基礎設施作為門檻，二者作用機製錶現齣瞭“由彊轉弱”的相關關繫；高速公路基礎設施作為門檻，二者作用機製錶現齣瞭顯著的“倒U”型相關關繫；在髮展低水平階段，鐵路作為物流業的主要運輸方式，對區域經濟影響作用彊大，隨後作用逐漸減弱；公路在中等水平階段明顯高于低水平階段；在其高水平髮展階段，促進作用略低于中等水平階段。由于交通基礎設施門檻效應的存在，文章建議應繫統、動態地看待我國交通基礎設施作用和因地製宜地製定物流業髮展政策，推動區域經濟的有效髮展。
감우통과물류업발전래해석아국구역경제발전저일주제존재적일사불족，문장재종술상관연구적기출상제출료이자지간존재비선성관계적관점。이용문함회귀모형，분별이철로화고속공로로망밀도작위교통기출설시문함변량，증실료기재물류업제승구역경제발전수평저일운행궤제상존재착비선성적조절작용。연구결과표명：2004-2013년간，철로기출설시작위문함，이자작용궤제표현출료“유강전약”적상관관계；고속공로기출설시작위문함，이자작용궤제표현출료현저적“도U”형상관관계；재발전저수평계단，철로작위물류업적주요운수방식，대구역경제영향작용강대，수후작용축점감약；공로재중등수평계단명현고우저수평계단；재기고수평발전계단，촉진작용략저우중등수평계단。유우교통기출설시문함효응적존재，문장건의응계통、동태지간대아국교통기출설시작용화인지제의지제정물류업발전정책，추동구역경제적유효발전。
In view of the defects in the explanation of development of regional economy in China from the angles of logistics development, the paper proposes that there is a non-linear relationship between the logistics and regional economy on the basis of the review articles on the research. It confirms the non-linear relationship by panel threshold mode with the railway and highway transportation infrastructure network density as the threshold variable. The results show that during the period of 2004-2013, with rail infrastructure as the threshold, the two mechanisms exhibit " from strong to weak" correlation. With highway infrastructure as a threshold, the two mechanisms exhibit significant" invert U" -type relationship. In low stage of the development, as the main mode of transport logistics industry, railway has great influence on the regional economy and then the role gradually weakens with transportation development. Highway in the middle level has significantly higher effect than that in the low stage and in its high level of development stage , and it is lower than the middle level stage. Because of the effect of transport infrastructure threshold, the paper puts forward such suggestions as using systematic, dynamic view about the role of transport infrastructure and making the development policy of logistics industry adapted to local conditions in order to promote the development of the regional economy.
