CAJ | 학술논문

选取陕西省1961－2010年气象观测站冰雹观测数据，分析38个苹果基地县冰雹的时空分布特征，结合基础地理信息数据、社会经济统计数据和历史灾情等方面资料，基于自然灾害风险形成原理，从致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性以及防灾减灾能力3个方面，构建陕西苹果冰雹灾害风险评估模型，利用GIS技术完成陕西苹果果区冰雹灾害风险区划。结果表明：①陕西苹果果区冰雹北多南少，高原和高山多于平川、盆地；延安、渭北西部果区多于渭北东部、关中西部果区；1970－1980年代是冰雹高发期且波动较大，1990年以后有所减少；降雹随季节变化明显，夏季冰雹日数最多，春秋次之；冰雹日变化呈单峰型，14∶00－19∶00是陕西苹果果区降雹的高峰时段，出现频次为78.7％。②陕西苹果果区冰雹灾害重度风险区主要分布在延安中西部，该区年平均雹日约2d；中度风险区主要包括韩城、合阳、澄城、蒲城、富平北部、耀州区、淳化、彬县、长武大部及其北部所有非重度风险区，该区年平均雹日1～2d；轻度风险区主要分布在关中西北部及东部部分地区，该区年平均雹日不足1 d。
선취합서성1961－2010년기상관측참빙박관측수거，분석38개평과기지현빙박적시공분포특정，결합기출지리신식수거、사회경제통계수거화역사재정등방면자료，기우자연재해풍험형성원리，종치재인자위험성、승재체역손성이급방재감재능력3개방면，구건협서평과빙박재해풍험평고모형，이용GIS기술완성협서평과과구빙박재해풍험구화。결과표명：①협서평과과구빙박북다남소，고원화고산다우평천、분지；연안、위북서부과구다우위북동부、관중서부과구；1970－1980년대시빙박고발기차파동교대，1990년이후유소감소；강박수계절변화명현，하계빙박일수최다，춘추차지；빙박일변화정단봉형，14∶00－19∶00시협서평과과구강박적고봉시단，출현빈차위78.7％。②협서평과과구빙박재해중도풍험구주요분포재연안중서부，해구년평균박일약2d；중도풍험구주요포괄한성、합양、징성、포성、부평북부、요주구、순화、빈현、장무대부급기북부소유비중도풍험구，해구년평균박일1～2d；경도풍험구주요분포재관중서북부급동부부분지구，해구년평균박일불족1 d。
Based on the hail observation data at weather stations from 1 961 -201 0 in Shaanxi province,tem-poral and spatial distribution characteristics of Hail in 38 apple fruit industry base countries is obtained.According to disaster risk forming mechanism,the assessment model of hail disaster for apple is constructed by using meteoro-logical data,basic geographic information data,socio-economic statistic data,and history disaster situation data and so on,according to the factors,such as the risk of disaster causing,the vulnerability of disaster body,and the ability of disaster prevention/reduction.The results are shown as follows.(1 )Hail in apple fruit area has the char-acteristics of more in North,mountain,and plateau area than in north,plain,and basin area;more in Yan’an and western Weibei fruit area than in eastern Weibei and western Guanzhong fruit area.There are fluctuations of hail occurrence in the 1 970 s and 1 980 s,and has been decreased from the 1 990 s.Hails occurred mostly in summer, and spring and autumn took second place.The diurnal variation of hail is single peak type,and the peak period of hail occurrence is from 1 4∶00 to 1 9∶00,with the frequency of 78.7%.(2)The severe risk regions mainly distrib-ute in the midwest of Yan’an,and the annual hail day is 2 d.The moderate risk regions mainly distribute in most areas of Hancheng,Heyang,Chengcheng,Pucheng,northern Fuping,Yaozhou,Chunhua,Binxian,Changwu, and northern part of these areas of non-severe risk regions;and the annual hail day is 1 ~2 d.The mild risk re-gions mainly distribute in the part of the northwest and eastern of Guanzhong,and the annual hail day is less than 1 d.