CAJ | 학술논문

针对现代航空装备的 PHM 需求，为提高 Weibull 分布在寿命预测中的精确度，提出了综合运用最小二乘法及平均秩次法对预测模型进行参数估计的方法，在此基础上建立了航空装备部件的寿命预测模型。对某型歼击机上航电系统中15个相同的核心部件进行了实验，分别用近似中位秩公式和平均秩次法处理实验数据，并对二者的拟合效果进行对比分析，结果显示平均秩次法的估计精度较高。寿命预测的结果表明，设备工作到3106．2 h 后可靠度下降到50％以下，与实际维护中平均每3000 h 进行一次检修或更换部件的情况基本相符。
침대현대항공장비적 PHM 수구，위제고 Weibull 분포재수명예측중적정학도，제출료종합운용최소이승법급평균질차법대예측모형진행삼수고계적방법，재차기출상건립료항공장비부건적수명예측모형。대모형섬격궤상항전계통중15개상동적핵심부건진행료실험，분별용근사중위질공식화평균질차법처리실험수거，병대이자적의합효과진행대비분석，결과현시평균질차법적고계정도교고。수명예측적결과표명，설비공작도3106．2 h 후가고도하강도50％이하，여실제유호중평균매3000 h 진행일차검수혹경환부건적정황기본상부。
Aiming at the PHM demand of modern aerial equipment,a method for parameter estimation was proposed by using the least squares method together with mean rank order to improve the precision of Weibull distribution in lifetime forecast.On which basis,a lifetime forecast model was established for components of aerial equipment.An experiment was made for 15 same core components of the avionic system onboard a fighter plane.The approximate median rank and mean rank order was used to deal with the data independently.The effect contrast showed that the latter one has a higher estimation precision.The lifetime forecast result showed that:the equipment reliability descend to 50% after 3106.2 h,which is consistent with the maintenance frequency of every 3000 h in application.