内蒙古农业科技
內矇古農業科技
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INNER MONGOLIA AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
2014年
5期
63-65
,共3页
最低气温%最低地温%预报模型%相关关系
最低氣溫%最低地溫%預報模型%相關關繫
최저기온%최저지온%예보모형%상관관계
Lowest temperature%Prediction model%Correlativity
运用数学统计学方法和气象学原理，选用巴彦淖尔市乌拉特中旗2005-2011年、临河区2006-2008年夜间有云能天连续观测年份的自动站地面A文件资料，对乌拉特中旗、临河区夜间2：00～7：00时天气状况下的最低地温和最低气温差值的年、月平均值进行了分析。结果表明：乌拉特中旗、临河最低地温与最低气温之间存在很好的正相关线性关系，而且二者之间的关系主要与夜间不同天气状况关系较大，与站与站之间以及春秋两季季节关系不大。基于不同天气状况对最低地温与最低气温差值的影响程度个别有相近之处，归类建立了4个以最低气温为基础的最低地温预报模型，并通过该模型的相关性检验得到了它们之间有很好的一致性，方程通过显著性检验。建立的预报方程可以为短期天气预报提供参考。
運用數學統計學方法和氣象學原理，選用巴彥淖爾市烏拉特中旂2005-2011年、臨河區2006-2008年夜間有雲能天連續觀測年份的自動站地麵A文件資料，對烏拉特中旂、臨河區夜間2：00～7：00時天氣狀況下的最低地溫和最低氣溫差值的年、月平均值進行瞭分析。結果錶明：烏拉特中旂、臨河最低地溫與最低氣溫之間存在很好的正相關線性關繫，而且二者之間的關繫主要與夜間不同天氣狀況關繫較大，與站與站之間以及春鞦兩季季節關繫不大。基于不同天氣狀況對最低地溫與最低氣溫差值的影響程度箇彆有相近之處，歸類建立瞭4箇以最低氣溫為基礎的最低地溫預報模型，併通過該模型的相關性檢驗得到瞭它們之間有很好的一緻性，方程通過顯著性檢驗。建立的預報方程可以為短期天氣預報提供參攷。
운용수학통계학방법화기상학원리，선용파언뇨이시오랍특중기2005-2011년、림하구2006-2008년야간유운능천련속관측년빈적자동참지면A문건자료，대오랍특중기、림하구야간2：00～7：00시천기상황하적최저지온화최저기온차치적년、월평균치진행료분석。결과표명：오랍특중기、림하최저지온여최저기온지간존재흔호적정상관선성관계，이차이자지간적관계주요여야간불동천기상황관계교대，여참여참지간이급춘추량계계절관계불대。기우불동천기상황대최저지온여최저기온차치적영향정도개별유상근지처，귀류건립료4개이최저기온위기출적최저지온예보모형，병통과해모형적상관성검험득도료타문지간유흔호적일치성，방정통과현저성검험。건립적예보방정가이위단기천기예보제공삼고。
Based on the continuously observed cloud data collected from Wulatezhong county from 2005 to 2011 and Linhe district from 2006 to 2008, the annual and monthly mean value of difference value between the lowest ground temperature and the minimum temperature during 2 am to 7 am at night in the above two regions were analyzed by using mathematical statistics method and meteorology principle. The results showed that there was positively related linear relation between the lowest ground temperature and the minimum temperature both in Wulatezhong county and Linhe district, and the relation between them was closely related to the different weather conditions but was little related to the differences between various observation stations and spring and autumn. Based on the individual similar effect of various weather conditions on the difference value between the lowest ground temperature and the minimum temperature, four forecasting models of the lowest ground temperature on the basis of the minimum temperature were established. The result of correlation test of the models proved the good consistency between them and the established formula passed the significance test. The model established in this study may provide a reference for the short-term weather forecast in the two regions.
