CAJ | 학술논문

2012年7月21日10：00?22日02：00,北京地区出现了一次历史上罕见的特大暴雨天气过程,对当地人民的生命财产造成了严重损失.采用新一代中尺度数值预报模式WRF V3.3.1对这次极端降水天气过程进行数值模拟研究,并运用模式输出结果对其发生、发展机制进行了研究.主要结论有： WRF模式能够较好地模拟出这次暴雨的落区、暴雨中心、24 h累积降水量等；此次强暴雨过程主要是由低空中β尺度涡旋造成的,即中β尺度涡旋随时间的演变决定降水落区及降水强度；最后利用相对螺旋度诊断了整个降水过程,结果显示相对螺旋度的变化对降水增强的临近预报具有明显指示意义.
2012년7월21일10：00?22일02：00,북경지구출현료일차역사상한견적특대폭우천기과정,대당지인민적생명재산조성료엄중손실.채용신일대중척도수치예보모식WRF V3.3.1대저차겁단강수천기과정진행수치모의연구,병운용모식수출결과대기발생、발전궤제진행료연구.주요결론유： WRF모식능구교호지모의출저차폭우적락구、폭우중심、24 h루적강수량등；차차강폭우과정주요시유저공중β척도와선조성적,즉중β척도와선수시간적연변결정강수락구급강수강도；최후이용상대라선도진단료정개강수과정,결과현시상대라선도적변화대강수증강적림근예보구유명현지시의의.
A severe rainfall occurred on 21 July, 2012 in Beijing City and caused serious damage to the local people’s lives and property. The high resolution model weather research and forecasting model developed by National center for atmospheric research was applied to simulate the extreme precipitation process. The WRF outputs were used to analyze the physical mechanism of the severe rainstorm. The main results showed that the mesoscale numerical model weather research and forecasting model could simulate the location of the rainfall, the rainstorm center, and the 24 h accumulated precipitation. The torrential rain’s process was mainly caused by a meso-β scale vortex, whose evolution determined the location and the intensity of the precipitation. The relative helicity was used to diagnose the rainfall, showing that it can indicate an immediate increase of a rainfall nearby.