CAJ | 학술논문

基于1980?2010年共31年NCEP再分析资料和华北地区地面台站资料,采用百分位阈值法研究了华北地区夏季极端高温天气事件的时空特征,并对其环流成因进行了分析.结果表明,1980?2010年华北地区极端高温日数和极端高温事件发生时的日平均、最高温度都有明显的增加趋势,其中极端高温日数的增加趋势尤为显著,线性趋势系数达到0.261,通过了0.01的显著性水平检验.空间分布上,近10年华北地区的极端高温日数显著增加,并且北部地区增加大于南部,极端高温多发区由20世纪80年代的“南多北少”向目前的“北多南少”分布态势转变；合成分析的结果表明,在华北地区极端高温日数偏多年,副高势力较强,且西伸脊点偏西,中高纬度地区为两高一低型,造成华北地区极端高温日数偏多的大气环流系统是其中偏东的深厚大陆高压,此系统强度大且在对流层低层势力尤为强盛,位势高度异常在850 hPa上超过5 gpm.
기우1980?2010년공31년NCEP재분석자료화화북지구지면태참자료,채용백분위역치법연구료화북지구하계겁단고온천기사건적시공특정,병대기배류성인진행료분석.결과표명,1980?2010년화북지구겁단고온일수화겁단고온사건발생시적일평균、최고온도도유명현적증가추세,기중겁단고온일수적증가추세우위현저,선성추세계수체도0.261,통과료0.01적현저성수평검험.공간분포상,근10년화북지구적겁단고온일수현저증가,병차북부지구증가대우남부,겁단고온다발구유20세기80년대적“남다북소”향목전적“북다남소”분포태세전변；합성분석적결과표명,재화북지구겁단고온일수편다년,부고세력교강,차서신척점편서,중고위도지구위량고일저형,조성화북지구겁단고온일수편다적대기배류계통시기중편동적심후대륙고압,차계통강도대차재대류층저층세력우위강성,위세고도이상재850 hPa상초과5 gpm.
Based on the daily data at 84 stations of North China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1980 to 2010, temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme high temperature events (EHTE) in summer were studied by using the centesimal threshold value method. The formative circumfluent background was also analyzed and the results show that, during 1980-2010 the number of days or mean/maximum of the EHTE increased significantly, and especially the days of the EHTE increased significantly with a linear trend coe?cient of 0.261 in North China. As for the space distribution, the period of increased EHTE was focused particularly on the recent ten years, and the days of the EHTE increased more in the north than in the south parts of Northern China. Thus the distribution of the days of the EHTE changed from a ’more in the south and less in the north’ state to an opposite situation. A composite analysis showed that the western Pacific subtropical high was stronger with a westward ridge point, two high pressures and one low pressure systems located in the middle and high latitude. The eastern high pressure of the two was the circulation system that caused more EHTE in Northern China. This system was especially strong in the lower layers of the troposphere. For example, at 850 hPa the value of the geopotential height anomaly was above 5 gpm.