CAJ | 학술논문

针对典型舰船的系统组成，进行了全舰任务成功性指标的示例计算，给出了总体指标的层次化表达方式。以舰船任务过程和典型任务剖面为依据，分析了任务可靠性和任务成功性之间的区别与联系，建立了舰船总体任务成功性指标的多阶段整体模型，并对航渡、待机、交战、撤离、返航阶段分别进行了仿真和解析建模。在建模与计算的基础上，通过敏感性分析计算了任务阶段持续时间的单位降低率等指标，为舰船任务成功性问题及其相关研究，提供了一个系统性的分析框架和方法。
침대전형함선적계통조성，진행료전함임무성공성지표적시례계산，급출료총체지표적층차화표체방식。이함선임무과정화전형임무부면위의거，분석료임무가고성화임무성공성지간적구별여련계，건립료함선총체임무성공성지표적다계단정체모형，병대항도、대궤、교전、철리、반항계단분별진행료방진화해석건모。재건모여계산적기출상，통과민감성분석계산료임무계단지속시간적단위강저솔등지표，위함선임무성공성문제급기상관연구，제공료일개계통성적분석광가화방법。
Aiming at the composition of a classical ship structures,the calculation of the ship′s mis-sion success probability leads to a hierarchy structure diagram.According to the mission requirement and classical mission characteristics of navy vessels,this paper analyzes the difference and relationship between the mission reliability and success probability and presents an integrated model for the whole ship′s multi-phase mission success.The model is used for the analysis and simulation of the processes of sailing,standing on alert,fighting,withdrawing and returning.Through sensitivity analysis,the unit decreasing rates of duration in mission phases are calculated.The research provides a systemic frame and pattern for the analysis of mission success probability of naval surface vessels.