CAJ | 학술논문

灰色马尔科夫组合模型是将灰色GM（1，1）模型与马尔科夫链有机地结合起来，利用各自优点并充分考虑大型结构整体变化趋势和局部波动的情况。通过对某桥梁结构的损伤系数进行预测分析并与GM（1，1）预测结果进行对比，该方法解决了GM（1，1）模型对波动性较大数据拟合较差，预测精度较低的缺陷。
회색마이과부조합모형시장회색GM（1，1）모형여마이과부련유궤지결합기래，이용각자우점병충분고필대형결구정체변화추세화국부파동적정황。통과대모교량결구적손상계수진행예측분석병여GM（1，1）예측결과진행대비，해방법해결료GM（1，1）모형대파동성교대수거의합교차，예측정도교저적결함。
Grey Markov combination model is used to combine GM(1,1)with Markov chains well,take their respective advantages and fully consider the whole variation trend and partial fluctuation of large structure. The damage coefficient of bridge structure was forecast and analyzed by using grey Markov combination model,the prediction results showed that the above method was of the goodness of fit for more fluctuant data and high forecast accuracy in comparison with GM(1,1).