CAJ | 학술논문

根据2010、2012两年云南省的820个地质灾害监测记录，基于模糊信息概率区间数的大小来开展降水量因子的评价研究。结果表明：突发地质灾害发生前10 d的单日降水量与灾害的关系很小，基本不能用于预警模型的建立和风险评价分析；累积降水量与突发地质灾害关系明显，特别是5～10 d的累积降水量预测概括率已达60％以上，可以用于突发地质灾害预警模型的建立和实际的监测预警；加衰减系数的有效累积降水量因子对突发地质灾害预测效果并无提升，与普通累积降水量因子相比并无优势。
근거2010、2012량년운남성적820개지질재해감측기록，기우모호신식개솔구간수적대소래개전강수량인자적평개연구。결과표명：돌발지질재해발생전10 d적단일강수량여재해적관계흔소，기본불능용우예경모형적건립화풍험평개분석；루적강수량여돌발지질재해관계명현，특별시5～10 d적루적강수량예측개괄솔이체60％이상，가이용우돌발지질재해예경모형적건립화실제적감측예경；가쇠감계수적유효루적강수량인자대돌발지질재해예측효과병무제승，여보통루적강수량인자상비병무우세。
According to 820 monitoring records of geological disasters in 201 0 and 201 2 in Yunnan Province, study on evaluation of precipitation factors is carried out based on fuzzy information probability interval numbers. Results show that the daily rainfall 1 0 days before has weak relationship with disasters,so basically it cannot be used to build forewarning modes and in risk evaluation or risk analysis;accumulated rainfall has strong relationship with sudden geological disasters,especially that of the 5 -1 0 days has reached prediction generalization rate of more than 60%,so it can be used to build forewarning modes and to monitor and to warn early sudden geological disasters practically;effective accumulated rainfall factor added with attenuation coefficient has no effect on impro-ving prediction of sudden geological disasters,so it has no advantage compared with general accumulated rainfall factor.