CAJ | 학술논문

以中国30个省市为研究对象，在全要素框架下运用超效率DEA模型测算各省市样本期内的碳排放效率，进行地区差异分析。基于我国省际面板数据采用多种回归方法，研究影响全国碳排放效率的主要因素。研究发现样本期内中国各省碳排放效率水平存在差异且呈阶段性特征。处在效率前沿面的基本为北京、上海、广东等东部地区，而碳排放效率较低的为陕西、贵州、内蒙古等西部地区，其中北京、天津、广东、云南、陕西等省的碳排放效率在样本期内随着时间的推移明显改善。较高的初始碳排放效率、产业结构的优化、城市化水平的提高、对外贸易结构的改善及能源结构的调整均对未来碳排放效率的改善有积极意义，重型化的工业结构对碳排放效率的提高却有明显的负面影响。因此，要在通盘考虑全局利益最大化的基础上，协调我国各地区的碳排放规模；采取引导和治理同步推进、“双管齐下”的措施；根据中国的经济发展阶段、产业结构特征以及企业竞争能力确定碳减排的步骤和进度，避免过快过强的措施使经济付出难以承受的代价。
이중국30개성시위연구대상，재전요소광가하운용초효솔DEA모형측산각성시양본기내적탄배방효솔，진행지구차이분석。기우아국성제면판수거채용다충회귀방법，연구영향전국탄배방효솔적주요인소。연구발현양본기내중국각성탄배방효솔수평존재차이차정계단성특정。처재효솔전연면적기본위북경、상해、엄동등동부지구，이탄배방효솔교저적위협서、귀주、내몽고등서부지구，기중북경、천진、엄동、운남、협서등성적탄배방효솔재양본기내수착시간적추이명현개선。교고적초시탄배방효솔、산업결구적우화、성시화수평적제고、대외무역결구적개선급능원결구적조정균대미래탄배방효솔적개선유적겁의의，중형화적공업결구대탄배방효솔적제고각유명현적부면영향。인차，요재통반고필전국이익최대화적기출상，협조아국각지구적탄배방규모；채취인도화치리동보추진、“쌍관제하”적조시；근거중국적경제발전계단、산업결구특정이급기업경쟁능력학정탄감배적보취화진도，피면과쾌과강적조시사경제부출난이승수적대개。
This paper calculates the carbon emission efficiencies of 30 provinces in China by using super?efficiency DEA model in the sample period and makes an analysis of regional differences, and then studies the main impacting factors of China?s carbon emission through various regressions based on provincial panel data. The research results show that the initial carbon emission efficiency, the optimization of industrial structure, the upgrading of urbanization, the improvement of foreign trade structure and the adjustment of energy structure have a positive impact on the carbon emission efficiency in the future, while the heavy industrial structure has a negative impact on the improvement of carbon emission efficiency. This paper puts forward policy recommenda?tions that China should decide on the steps and schedule of carbon emission reduction based on the economic development stage, features of industrial structure and corporate competitiveness after considering the overall benefits and coordinating the carbon emission scale, trying to avoid the possible loss resulting from excessively strong measures in carbon emission reduction.