CAJ | 학술논문

文章对1995—2010年天津市能源消费碳排放进行分析，基于对数平均迪氏指数法（ LMDI），对碳排放进行因素分解实证研究，并进行情景分析，寻求天津市碳减排对策。研究发现，虽然人均GDP效应、人口效应以及能源强度效应贡献量相对较大，但结构效应对于天津碳排放的影响也不容忽视，其对于能源消费碳排放的拉动或减缓作用与低碳能源比重、第三产业比重的大小有很强的关联性。情景分析进一步表明优化产业及能源结构对碳减排的积极作用。
문장대1995—2010년천진시능원소비탄배방진행분석，기우대수평균적씨지수법（ LMDI），대탄배방진행인소분해실증연구，병진행정경분석，심구천진시탄감배대책。연구발현，수연인균GDP효응、인구효응이급능원강도효응공헌량상대교대，단결구효응대우천진탄배방적영향야불용홀시，기대우능원소비탄배방적랍동혹감완작용여저탄능원비중、제삼산업비중적대소유흔강적관련성。정경분석진일보표명우화산업급능원결구대탄감배적적겁작용。
This article analyzed the energy consumption and carbon emissions in Tianjin during 1995—2010 and studied the decomposition of carbon emission factors by the logarithmic mean Divisia index method ( LMDI) , then analyzed by sce-nario and sought strategies to reduce carbon emission .The results showed that although the effects of Per Capita GDP , pop-ulation and energy intensity on carbon emission are great , energy and industrial structure cannot be neglected .There is a strong correlation between structure effect , including the proportion of low carbon energy , the tertiary industry , and carbon emission.Scenario analysis further showed that optimizing the industrial and energy structure has positive effect on carbon emissions reduction .