CAJ | 학술논문

赵各庄矿井13水平西翼第8号石门区域的3839工作面是一个典型的近百年开采的高倾斜煤层深部开采区。为预测3839工作面涌水量，首先分析了其上部9－13水平近30年的开采面积、降水量、奥灰水位、开采深度等因素与矿井涌水量的相关性；其次，筛选出了老空积水量、降水量、奥灰水位变幅和开采深度等影响因素；最后，通过建立多元线性回归分析预测模型（方程），并利用2012年涌水量数据对预测模型进行验证，发现该预测模型与2012年实测数据相关性很高。进而对2013年的3839工作面涌水量进行了预测，得到的结果与已有的比拟法、解析法预测结果均较接近。说明该模型涌水量预测可行，但未证明该模型具有普遍适用性。
조각장광정13수평서익제8호석문구역적3839공작면시일개전형적근백년개채적고경사매층심부개채구。위예측3839공작면용수량，수선분석료기상부9－13수평근30년적개채면적、강수량、오회수위、개채심도등인소여광정용수량적상관성；기차，사선출료로공적수량、강수량、오회수위변폭화개채심도등영향인소；최후，통과건립다원선성회귀분석예측모형（방정），병이용2012년용수량수거대예측모형진행험증，발현해예측모형여2012년실측수거상관성흔고。진이대2013년적3839공작면용수량진행료예측，득도적결과여이유적비의법、해석법예측결과균교접근。설명해모형용수량예측가행，단미증명해모형구유보편괄용성。
The 3839 coal face in the West Wing 8 crosscut of the 13 level in the Zhaogezhuang mine,is a deep mining of steeply dipping coal seam after nearly 100 years’mining. In order to predict the mine water discharge of the 3839 coal face,firstly,we carried out the detailed analysis of the mining area of upper 9~13 levels in nearly 30 years,in terms of precipitation,Ordovician limestone water level,mining depth,and the correlation between the mining area of upper level and the mine water discharge. Secondly,we selected factors of discharge,precipitation,the change magnitude of Ordovician limestone water level and mining depth. Final-ly,through the establishment of multiple linear regression analysis and forecasting model (equation ),after validating the function by using the discharge data of 2012,we can conclude that the regression factor is highly correlated. After predicting mine discharge in the 3839 coal when mining in 2013,the results are close to the predicted by use of the analogy method and the analytical method. It is suggested that this method is feasible in the prediction of mine water discharge,but not having universal applicability.