CAJ | 학술논문

利用VAR模型分析天津市对外贸易与就业、产业结构变动和收入之间的关系。研究结果表明：出口导向率与就业、第三产业结构变动存在显著的负相关关系；与第二产业结构变动呈正相关关系；与收入水平呈正相关关系。进口渗透率与就业、产业结构变动及收入之间的关系不显著。而且居民收入的提高是因为对外贸易引起就业质量的提高而不是就业量的增加。因此，天津市应充分利用和优化对外贸易政策，实现地区产业结构的升级和调整以及居民收入的提高。
이용VAR모형분석천진시대외무역여취업、산업결구변동화수입지간적관계。연구결과표명：출구도향솔여취업、제삼산업결구변동존재현저적부상관관계；여제이산업결구변동정정상관관계；여수입수평정정상관관계。진구삼투솔여취업、산업결구변동급수입지간적관계불현저。이차거민수입적제고시인위대외무역인기취업질량적제고이불시취업량적증가。인차，천진시응충분이용화우화대외무역정책，실현지구산업결구적승급화조정이급거민수입적제고。
Using VAR model, this paper analyzed the relationship between Tianjin foreign trade and employment, the change of industrial structure and income. Research results showed that export-oriented rate has a significantly negative correlation with employment and the changes of tertiary sector respectively; the changes of second industry were positively correlated; and positively correlated with income levels. Import permeability and employment, industrial structure change has no significant relationship. And people ’s income increase caused by foreign trade to promote the quality of employment rather than the increase of employment. Therefore, Tianjin should make full use of and optimize the foreign trade policy, realize the implementation of regional industrial structure upgrading and adjustment and the improvement of people’s income.