CAJ | 학술논문

根据且末气象站1971—2012年冬季逐日气温资料，通过对冬季极端最低气温、日平均气温≤-10℃负积温、最低气温≤-18℃日数、≥1 cm积雪持续日数等冻害气象因子进行标准化处理，运用主分量分析方法计算红枣综合冻害指数，并采用线性回归，Mann-Kendall检验和小波分析方法对综合冻害指标进行分析，结果表明，综合冻害指数数值越小，冻害越严重；确定综合冻害指数≤-1.0为红枣出现冻害的临界指标；冻害指数在1977年前后出现了一次增大突变；预测2013年冬季红枣受冻情况与实际一致。
근거차말기상참1971—2012년동계축일기온자료，통과대동계겁단최저기온、일평균기온≤-10℃부적온、최저기온≤-18℃일수、≥1 cm적설지속일수등동해기상인자진행표준화처리，운용주분량분석방법계산홍조종합동해지수，병채용선성회귀，Mann-Kendall검험화소파분석방법대종합동해지표진행분석，결과표명，종합동해지수수치월소，동해월엄중；학정종합동해지수≤-1.0위홍조출현동해적림계지표；동해지수재1977년전후출현료일차증대돌변；예측2013년동계홍조수동정황여실제일치。
According to the daily temperature data during 1971-2012 in the meteorological station of Qiemo, the meteorological factors of freeze injury including winter extremely minimum temperature, negative accumulated temperature with daily average temperature ≤-10 ℃, day numbers of the lowest temperature≤-18 ℃, last days of snow ≥1cm were standardized. The principal component analytical method was used to calculate the comprehensive index of freezing injury of jujube, and the linear regression, Man-Kendall testing and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the comprehensive index of freezing injury. The results showed that, the smaller the comprehensive index of frost damage was, the more serious freeze injury was; we also determined that the comprehensive index of frost damage ≤-1.0 was the critical index for freeze injury occurrence;the index of freezing injury had an increased mutation in 1977.