CAJ | 학술논문

应用HBV水文模型对开都河流域焉耆站以上段进行了模拟，通过对模型敏感参数的率定（1982—1985年），Nash效率系数达到0.73，说明模型能够很好地反映开都河流域的径流过程；对模型进行验证的结果表明在1986—1989年模拟结果的Nash效率系数达到0.75，比率定期的Nash效率系数高，模型在开都河流域有较高的适用性，能够反映出流域年、月、日径流量的变化趋势。通过率定后的HBV模型，计算了不同流量和水位所对应的临界致灾雨量，当基础水位为6.27 m，流量为100 m3/s时，临界一级（保证流量800 m3/s)和二级(警戒流量500 m3/s）致灾面雨量分别为50 mm和30 mm，随着基础水位和流量的增加，临界致灾雨量的值在减小。将通过HBV水文模型计算的临界雨量与历史上发生洪水的24 h和120 h的实际降水量进行对比分析，发现应用HBV水文模型推算的临界面雨量大于实际24 h降水量，小于前5 d的降水合计量，因此在实际的业务应用中还需要对结果进行进一步的分析和验证。
응용HBV수문모형대개도하류역언기참이상단진행료모의，통과대모형민감삼수적솔정（1982—1985년），Nash효솔계수체도0.73，설명모형능구흔호지반영개도하류역적경류과정；대모형진행험증적결과표명재1986—1989년모의결과적Nash효솔계수체도0.75，비솔정기적Nash효솔계수고，모형재개도하류역유교고적괄용성，능구반영출류역년、월、일경류량적변화추세。통과솔정후적HBV모형，계산료불동류량화수위소대응적림계치재우량，당기출수위위6.27 m，류량위100 m3/s시，림계일급（보증류량800 m3/s)화이급(경계류량500 m3/s）치재면우량분별위50 mm화30 mm，수착기출수위화류량적증가，림계치재우량적치재감소。장통과HBV수문모형계산적림계우량여역사상발생홍수적24 h화120 h적실제강수량진행대비분석，발현응용HBV수문모형추산적림계면우량대우실제24 h강수량，소우전5 d적강수합계량，인차재실제적업무응용중환수요대결과진행진일보적분석화험증。
The HBV hydrological model was used to simulate the runoff of Kaidu River above the Yanqi hydrologic station in this paper. Based on HBV model calibration and correction, the results show that the runoff process was basically accord with the measured which can reflect changes of runoff trend in the year, month and daily. But there are certain errors on the peak runoff of the simulation results. Through the HBV model simulation, calculation the different flow and water level correspond to the critical rainfall. Meanwhile, the paper compared HBV calculation results to 24 hour /120 hour rainfall when the river floods in history. The results show that rainfall by HBV hydrological model calculation is greater than the actual 24 hour precipitation, maybe associated with the simulation of flood peak flow .