CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规资料、EC细网格和T639模式12 h预报场对2013年夏季发生在北疆北部的2次区域强降水过程中12 h最强降水时段的环境场进行中尺度分析。结果表明，中亚低槽北上强降水落区位于500和700 hPa中尺度气旋的第一、四象限及对流层低层冷槽的右侧，850 hPa切变线附近，地面中尺度高压前部、边界线和切变线附近及干线西侧的重合区域。西西伯利亚低涡型暴雨位于中尺度短波槽前、高空西南急流出口区左侧辐散区，700和850 hPa切变线西侧及干线西南部，850 hPa偏西、偏东及东南3股气流汇合区，地面干线的西部、辐合线东部及切变线附近的重叠区域。中亚低槽北上暴雨天气为非典型暴雨易漏报。用模式12 h预报场制作高空综合图，可提高预报时效，EC细网格优于T639模式。
이용상규자료、EC세망격화T639모식12 h예보장대2013년하계발생재북강북부적2차구역강강수과정중12 h최강강수시단적배경장진행중척도분석。결과표명，중아저조북상강강수락구위우500화700 hPa중척도기선적제일、사상한급대류층저층랭조적우측，850 hPa절변선부근，지면중척도고압전부、변계선화절변선부근급간선서측적중합구역。서서백리아저와형폭우위우중척도단파조전、고공서남급류출구구좌측복산구，700화850 hPa절변선서측급간선서남부，850 hPa편서、편동급동남3고기류회합구，지면간선적서부、복합선동부급절변선부근적중첩구역。중아저조북상폭우천기위비전형폭우역루보。용모식12 h예보장제작고공종합도，가제고예보시효，EC세망격우우T639모식。
For forecasting the precipitation more than 24 mm in 12 hours, the model output of precipitation data, which sometimes have large deviation, is an important basis. Based on Mesoscale analysis technology, using conventional observation data, EC fine grid data and T639 model 12 h forecast field, the 12 h ambient field of mesoscale weather chart of two strongest rainfall period of regional heavy rainfall episodes in North Xinjiang in summer of 2013 were analyzed. The results show as follows. Caused by Central Asia trough going up to the north, the rainstorm located at the overlap area of the first and fourth quadrant of mesoscale cyclone at 500 and 700 hPa, near the shear line on 850 hPa, at the mesoscale high pressure front,near the boundary line, the shear line and at the west side of the dryline. The West Siberia Vortex Rainstorm was in front of the mesoscale short wave trough, at the divergence zone on the left of the southwest jet exit, at the west side of the shear line and to the southwest of the dryline at 700 and 850 hPa where the three air currents from west, east and southeast at 850hPa converged, and shear line of overlap area on surface. The rainstorm caused by Central Asia trough going up to north is an typical storm that is easy to be omitted. With 12 h forecast field from the model, the forecast for time can be improved and the accuracy of EC fine mesh was better than that of T639 model.