CAJ | 학술논문

用中尺度数值预报模式GRAPES_Meso V3.3.2.5版本以及NCEP的GFS资料，分别选用模式中不同陆面参数化方案（SLAB、LSM、NOAH）对2013年9月14—17日新疆强降水过程进行数值模拟试验，结果表明：（1）陆面方案对主要雨带的落区和大致走向影响并不大，但对降水强度的预报还是敏感的，SLAB陆面方案预报的降水场与实况场最相似；（2）不同陆面方案在选取的强降水区域预报的降水量均较实况偏小，比较各试验后发现NOAH方案较其他方案的预报结果显得更加稳定与合理。
용중척도수치예보모식GRAPES_Meso V3.3.2.5판본이급NCEP적GFS자료，분별선용모식중불동륙면삼수화방안（SLAB、LSM、NOAH）대2013년9월14—17일신강강강수과정진행수치모의시험，결과표명：（1）륙면방안대주요우대적락구화대치주향영향병불대，단대강수강도적예보환시민감적，SLAB륙면방안예보적강수장여실황장최상사；（2）불동륙면방안재선취적강강수구역예보적강수량균교실황편소，비교각시험후발현NOAH방안교기타방안적예보결과현득경가은정여합리。
The mesoscale numerical prediction model GRAEPS Meso V3.3.2.5 version and National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)GFS data are used to simulate a heavy rainfall event in Xinjiang during 14-17 September, 2013, and the precipitation sensitivity to land surface parameterization schemes is tested. The results show that:(1)The forecast precipitation patterns from GRAPES model generally agree with the observations, and the sensitivity of the precipitation forecast to the land surface physical process is distinct. The precipitation field forecasted by the SLAB scheme is the most similar to the observation field.(2)The precipitation forecasted by different land surface schemes in selected heavy rainfall area is smaller than the observation. Comparing all results of precipitation forecast with different land surface parameterization schemes, NOAH scheme gives more reasonable and stable forecast effect than the others.