CAJ | 학술논문

对2013年1—12月ECMWF细网格模式2 m温度在新疆及周边地区的预报效果进行了统计检验。结果表明：ECMWF细网格模式2 m温度预报为系统性偏高，预报效果随预报时效的延长而逐渐变差。72 h内温度预报的绝对误差小、预报准确率高，对实际温度预报有很好的指导作用；96~168 h温度预报的绝对误差较小，预报准确率较高，对实际温度预报具有参考价值；192~240 h温度预报的绝对误差大、预报准确率低，对实际温度预报参考价值不大。温度预报精度在蒙古国西部最低，北疆盆地次之，南疆盆地最高。
대2013년1—12월ECMWF세망격모식2 m온도재신강급주변지구적예보효과진행료통계검험。결과표명：ECMWF세망격모식2 m온도예보위계통성편고，예보효과수예보시효적연장이축점변차。72 h내온도예보적절대오차소、예보준학솔고，대실제온도예보유흔호적지도작용；96~168 h온도예보적절대오차교소，예보준학솔교고，대실제온도예보구유삼고개치；192~240 h온도예보적절대오차대、예보준학솔저，대실제온도예보삼고개치불대。온도예보정도재몽고국서부최저，북강분지차지，남강분지최고。
The forecast result of ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature from January to December 2013 in Xinjiang and its surrounding areas was evaluated. The result showed that ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature forecast was systematically lower, and the effect became worse with the increase of forecast period. Compared with the statistical tests of the absolute errors for temperature forecast in 72 h, 96~168 h and 192~240 h, the absolute errors and precision of forecast within 72 hours which have a certain reference value for actual temperature forecast outperform the other two leading time, followed by the forecasting precision within 96~168 h, and result for 192~240 h forecasting was left behind among the three predicted time. In addition, the accuracy of temperature prediction showed that the ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature was best in southern Xinjiang basin, northern Xinjiang basin for the second place, and the lowest in western Mongolia.