CAJ | 학술논문

水资源供需系统具有复杂性和不确定性，且系统环境随时间动态变化，给决策者带来困扰。本文基于多阶段规划框架下的多层离散情境树，引入区间数和概率密度函数表达模型中不同参数的不确定性，建立适用于水资源管理决策的区间多阶段随机规划模型，并以陕西省宝鸡市冯家山水库多用户供水方案决策问题进行实例研究。结果表明，该模型不仅能处理水资源供需系统中的不确定性，而且能够以多情境下的离散形式反映各规划周期中水资源配置的动态决策过程，并对预先制定的决策实时纠正以减少缺水经济惩罚和降低不能达到目标的风险，模型优化结果有助于决策者权衡系统经济效益、相应决策风险和相应的经济惩罚。
수자원공수계통구유복잡성화불학정성，차계통배경수시간동태변화，급결책자대래곤우。본문기우다계단규화광가하적다층리산정경수，인입구간수화개솔밀도함수표체모형중불동삼수적불학정성，건립괄용우수자원관리결책적구간다계단수궤규화모형，병이합서성보계시풍가산수고다용호공수방안결책문제진행실례연구。결과표명，해모형불부능처리수자원공수계통중적불학정성，이차능구이다정경하적리산형식반영각규화주기중수자원배치적동태결책과정，병대예선제정적결책실시규정이감소결수경제징벌화강저불능체도목표적풍험，모형우화결과유조우결책자권형계통경제효익、상응결책풍험화상응적경제징벌。
There are a lot of uncertainties and other complicated problems in water resources management system, mainly concerning parameters and their inter-relationships, which may trouble the decision-makers. Based on multilayer discrete situational tree under the multi-stage programming frame, an interval multi-stage stochastic programming model is developed to deal with uncertainty problem for water resources management system. Interval number and probability density function are introduced into the model to ex?press the uncertainties of different parameters. The model is used to simulate water allocation of the Fengji?ashan Reservoir for multi-user to generate optimized allocation schemes for a range of scenarios. The re?sults indicate that the model can not only deal with the uncertainties but also reflect dynamic decision pro?cess of water resources allocation in each planning period by discrete form of multi-scenario, so that the corrective actions could be taken in a real-time manner based on the pre-defined policies and minimize the penalty for water deficit and the risk when the promised targets being violated,solution of the IMSLP model can make the decision-maker get insight into the trade-off between the system economic benefit and the corresponding decision risk or financial penalties.