CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规观测资料分析2009—2011年天津地区33次局地暴雨天气过程的影响系统，对局地暴雨天气发生前的大气环境物理参数进行统计，对比不同影响系统下预报着眼点的差异。结果表明：天津局地暴雨主要发生在蒙古冷涡、东北冷涡、高空槽前及高空槽后4种天气影响系统下。不同影响系统预报重点不同，其中蒙古冷涡系统下应以整层良好的水汽和涡旋系统东南象限深厚的辐合上升运动为着眼点；而东北冷涡系统下则需关注低层水汽条件充沛和中层强烈的辐合抬升；高空槽系统下在动力、水汽以及能量条件配合较均衡；而槽后型系统影响下若发生局地暴雨，各种强对流参数特征则最显著。在此基础上，通过典型局地暴雨过程对强降水落区进行诊断表明，天津构造加密探空资料由于充分考虑了近地面的温湿风特征，计算所得的可降水量、对流有效位能及地面至3 km高度的垂直风切变对局地暴雨落区具有良好的指示性。同时，个例研究也表明TJ-WRF对局地暴雨天气过程有较好的预报能力，综合应用模式物理量结果可较好的预报局地暴雨落区。
이용상규관측자료분석2009—2011년천진지구33차국지폭우천기과정적영향계통，대국지폭우천기발생전적대기배경물리삼수진행통계，대비불동영향계통하예보착안점적차이。결과표명：천진국지폭우주요발생재몽고랭와、동북랭와、고공조전급고공조후4충천기영향계통하。불동영향계통예보중점불동，기중몽고랭와계통하응이정층량호적수기화와선계통동남상한심후적복합상승운동위착안점；이동북랭와계통하칙수관주저층수기조건충패화중층강렬적복합태승；고공조계통하재동력、수기이급능량조건배합교균형；이조후형계통영향하약발생국지폭우，각충강대류삼수특정칙최현저。재차기출상，통과전형국지폭우과정대강강수락구진행진단표명，천진구조가밀탐공자료유우충분고필료근지면적온습풍특정，계산소득적가강수량、대류유효위능급지면지3 km고도적수직풍절변대국지폭우락구구유량호적지시성。동시，개례연구야표명TJ-WRF대국지폭우천기과정유교호적예보능력，종합응용모식물리량결과가교호적예보국지폭우락구。
Based on conventional observed data from 2009 to 201 1 in Tianjin,weather systems of 33 local rain-storm processes were analyzed.Atmospheric physical parameters were analyzed statistically before local rainstorm happened,and key points of forecasting under different weather systems were compared.The results show that local rainstorms often occur under four weather systems,namely,Mongolia cold vertex,northeast cold vertex,before or after upper trough.Plenty of water vapor throughout the atmosphere and deep convergence ascending motion on the southeast quadrant of vortex system are main factors of forecasting under Mongolia cold vertex,while low-level moisture conditions and middle-level strong convergence uplift are emphasis of forecasting under northeast cold vortex systems.Dynamic,water vapor and energy conditions under upper trough system are more balanced.How-ever,all kinds of strong convective characteristics are very significant if the local rainstorm happens after upper trough.Diagnosis of falling areas of typical local rainstorms suggests that precipitable water,convection effective potential energy and vertical wind shear between ground to 3 km height are of indicative to falling area of rain-storm,because these three parameters are calculated based on data in Tianjin radiosonde station where temperature, humidity and wind are considered fully.At the same time,the case analysis shows that a TJ-WRF numerical model has a good ability for predicting local rainstorms,and physical parameters calculated by the model can be used to well forecast the local rainfall area.