CAJ | 학술논문

利用MICAPS 3欧阳位温分析图，运用V-3θ图结构分析法，对2013年7月1—2日锦州东部地区短时局地大暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明：此次锦州地区短时局地暴雨过程是在东北冷涡背景下产生的，通过常规天气学角度预报短时局地暴雨难度较大，V-3θ图结构分析法利用特性层信息的非均匀性和不连续性，反映垂直方向的涡旋运动，可以在一定程度上弥补常规暴雨预报能力的不足。在短时局地暴雨发生前12—24 h，锦州及其上游地区的V-3θ图上有超低温存在；从暴雨开始至暴雨结束，锦州地区逐渐从“顺滚流”转为“逆滚流”；θ、θsed和θ*曲线有多处左倾转为平缓右倾，不稳定能量逐渐减少；水汽条件从有干层侵入至整层湿层，最后转为整层干层，这些特征对锦州地区短时局地暴雨预报有较好的指示意义。分析雷达速度资料可以判断不同高度的风向风速，进而判断“滚流效应”，弥补V-3θ图时空分辨率低的不足；不同下垫面分布可以改变边界层的风向风速，从而影响“滚流效应”，这也是局地暴雨落区预报的重要依据。
이용MICAPS 3구양위온분석도，운용V-3θ도결구분석법，대2013년7월1—2일금주동부지구단시국지대폭우과정진행분석。결과표명：차차금주지구단시국지폭우과정시재동북랭와배경하산생적，통과상규천기학각도예보단시국지폭우난도교대，V-3θ도결구분석법이용특성층신식적비균균성화불련속성，반영수직방향적와선운동，가이재일정정도상미보상규폭우예보능력적불족。재단시국지폭우발생전12—24 h，금주급기상유지구적V-3θ도상유초저온존재；종폭우개시지폭우결속，금주지구축점종“순곤류”전위“역곤류”；θ、θsed화θ*곡선유다처좌경전위평완우경，불은정능량축점감소；수기조건종유간층침입지정층습층，최후전위정층간층，저사특정대금주지구단시국지폭우예보유교호적지시의의。분석뢰체속도자료가이판단불동고도적풍향풍속，진이판단“곤류효응”，미보V-3θ도시공분변솔저적불족；불동하점면분포가이개변변계층적풍향풍속，종이영향“곤류효응”，저야시국지폭우락구예보적중요의거。
Based on MICAPS 3 data,a local short-time severe rainstorm occurred on July 1-2,2013 in the eastern area of Jinzhou was analyzed using a V-3θchart method.The results show that this process occurs under the back-ground of northeast cold vortex.In general,it is difficult to forecast a local short-time rainstorm by the convention-al synoptic analysis,while a structure analysis method of the V-3θchart using inhomogeneity and discontinuity of significant pressure layer could reflect vertical motivation of vortex.Thus,it could make up deficiency of conven-tional rainstorm forecasting.There exists ultra-low temperature on the V-3θchart in Jinzhou and its upper reaches area in previous 12 to 24 hours of local short-time rainstorm.From the start to the end of this process,tumble is changed from"clockwise"to "anti-clockwise".Curves of θ,θsed and θ* are changed from left incline in many points to gradual right incline,and instability energy gradually reduces.Water vapor invades from dry layer to wet layer,and then the whole layer changes wet layer.At last,the whole layer becomes dry layer.The above characters mentioned could be of indicative to a local short-time rainstorm in Jinzhou area.Analysis of radar velocity is favor-able to judge wind speed and wind direction at different heights,and then judge the "tumble effect",which can make up shortcomings of low space-time resolution of V-3θchart.Also,different distribution of underlying surface could change wind speed and wind direction,and further influences "tumble effect",so this is an important basis for falling area of local short-time rainstorm.