CAJ | 학술논문

入境旅游是衡量云南省从旅游大省向旅游强省迈进的重要指标，体现一个地区的国际旅游竞争力。运用单位根检验、协整分析、Granger因果检验等经济计量方法，对云南省1995—2013年入境旅游与区域经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明：云南省入境旅游与经济增长之间存在比较稳定的长期均衡关系，协整模型显示入境旅游每增长1％，能拉动区域经济增长1.01％；Granger因果检验得出存在经济驱动入境旅游发展的单向因果关系，即经济增长是入境旅游发展的长期原因，而入境旅游并不是经济增长的长期原因。
입경여유시형량운남성종여유대성향여유강성매진적중요지표，체현일개지구적국제여유경쟁력。운용단위근검험、협정분석、Granger인과검험등경제계량방법，대운남성1995—2013년입경여유여구역경제증장지간적관계진행료실증분석。결과표명：운남성입경여유여경제증장지간존재비교은정적장기균형관계，협정모형현시입경여유매증장1％，능랍동구역경제증장1.01％；Granger인과검험득출존재경제구동입경여유발전적단향인과관계，즉경제증장시입경여유발전적장기원인，이입경여유병불시경제증장적장기원인。
Inbound tourism is an important indicator to measure the transition from a large tourism to a strong one which could reflect international competitiveness of a region.Using the method of economet-rics,such as unit root test,co-integration analysis and Granger causality tests,Made empirical research on the relation to the inbound tourism and regional economic growth from 1995 to 2013.The results were shown that there are stable and long-term equilibrium relationship between the inbound tourism and re-gional economic growth of Yunnan province.the inbound tourism increases by 1%can drive the regional economic growth 1.01% which was proved by the cointegration model.The Granger causality tests indi-cate that there is one-way relationship between inbound tourism development and economic drive,that is, long-term reason of inbound tourism development is economic growth.