CAJ | 학술논문

南水北调工程通过对水资源的优化配置，在解决缺水地区用水紧张问题的同时，也保证了城乡之间和区域之间经济和社会的可持续发展。实际上，南水北调工程的供水效益与受水地区的经济增长之间存在着一定关联性，采用灰色系统理论建立灰色关联分析模型，以通榆河北沿送水工程为例，通过处理历史数据，证实其供水效益与受水地区连云港经济增长之间存在较高的关联性。并通过计算各因素关联程度的大小和分析两者具有相关性的原因，为政府制订更加合理的调水工程发展策略提供参考。
남수북조공정통과대수자원적우화배치，재해결결수지구용수긴장문제적동시，야보증료성향지간화구역지간경제화사회적가지속발전。실제상，남수북조공정적공수효익여수수지구적경제증장지간존재착일정관련성，채용회색계통이론건립회색관련분석모형，이통유하북연송수공정위례，통과처리역사수거，증실기공수효익여수수지구련운항경제증장지간존재교고적관련성。병통과계산각인소관련정도적대소화분석량자구유상관성적원인，위정부제정경가합리적조수공정발전책략제공삼고。
Through the optimized allocation of water resources,the South-to-North water diversion project not only solves the problem of water use in water shortage region,but also ensures sustainable development of economy and society for urban-rural areas and regional areas. Actually,there exists a connection between water supply benefits of the South-to-North water diversion project and economic growth of the water areas. This study uses gray system theory to establish grey correlation analysis model, and takes Tongyu river water-sending-north project for case study to confirm that its water supply benefits has a high correlation with economic growth of the water areas—Lianyungang. This study also formulates more reasonable water diversion project development strategy for the government through calculating the size of the correlation degree of various factors and analyzing the relevant reasons.