CAJ | 학술논문

城市化是区域经济发展和社会进步的重要标志.基于1949-2010年的时间序列数据和第六次全国人口普查资料，运用SPSS17.0社会统计软件，从发展阶段、影响因素和模型预测三个方面对韶关市城市化进程与发展趋势进行了分析.结果表明：韶关城市化正处于并将长期处于诺瑟姆“S”曲线的第二个阶段，即加速发展阶段；韶关城市化受到人均GDP、城镇居民可支配收入等经济增长因素和一、二、三产业产值结构、就业结构的重大影响.进一步加快产业结构转型，提升工业经济和现代服务业在区域经济中的地位和作用，着力于以韶关市区和以县城为重点的县域经济和城镇化建设，对于韶关未来城市化进程有着积极的推动作用.
성시화시구역경제발전화사회진보적중요표지.기우1949-2010년적시간서렬수거화제륙차전국인구보사자료，운용SPSS17.0사회통계연건，종발전계단、영향인소화모형예측삼개방면대소관시성시화진정여발전추세진행료분석.결과표명：소관성시화정처우병장장기처우낙슬모“S”곡선적제이개계단，즉가속발전계단；소관성시화수도인균GDP、성진거민가지배수입등경제증장인소화일、이、삼산업산치결구、취업결구적중대영향.진일보가쾌산업결구전형，제승공업경제화현대복무업재구역경제중적지위화작용，착력우이소관시구화이현성위중점적현역경제화성진화건설，대우소관미래성시화진정유착적겁적추동작용.
Urbanization is an important symbol of regional economic development and social progress. Based on the time series data of 1949-2010 and the sixth national population census data, using SPSS17.0 statistical software of society, from the stage of development, influencing factors and prediction model of the three aspects, the process of urbanization and the development trend of Shaoguan are analyzed. The results shows that:Shaoguan is being in long-term and Northam "S" curve second stages, namely the stage of accelerated development of urbanization; and the process of urbanization and the development trend of Shaoguan is materially affecting by GDP per capita, urban residents economic growth income, and the first, the second and the third layers of industrial output value structure, and employment structure. It should accelerate the transformation of industrial structure, highlight the status and role of the industrial economy and modern service industry in the regional economy, and focus on the construction of county economy and urbanization in Shaoguan city, which is good for the future urbanization of Shaoguan city.