CAJ | 학술논문

设备故障率的计算是电网运行风险评估中的关键环节，将基于状态检修的设备故障率算法应用到电网运行风险评估中，在一定程度上提高了设备故障率的准确度、可信度。基于状态检修的电网运行风险评估方法充分考虑了电网运行中存在的不确定性，通过线路过载、变压器过载、过电压、低电压和失负荷五项风险指标较全面地描述电网运行风险水平，且应用了层次分析法计算电网综合风险指标，为对比电网不同运行方式下的风险大小提供了参考依据。通过实际算例分析，验证了基于状态检修的电网运行风险评估方法的有效性。
설비고장솔적계산시전망운행풍험평고중적관건배절，장기우상태검수적설비고장솔산법응용도전망운행풍험평고중，재일정정도상제고료설비고장솔적준학도、가신도。기우상태검수적전망운행풍험평고방법충분고필료전망운행중존재적불학정성，통과선로과재、변압기과재、과전압、저전압화실부하오항풍험지표교전면지묘술전망운행풍험수평，차응용료층차분석법계산전망종합풍험지표，위대비전망불동운행방식하적풍험대소제공료삼고의거。통과실제산례분석，험증료기우상태검수적전망운행풍험평고방법적유효성。
Calculation of the equipment failure rate is a key point to the risk assessment of power system operation. The condition based mainteinance equipment fault rate algorithm is applied to the risk assessment of power system op-eration, which will improve the accuracy and reliability of equipment failure rate in a certain extent.The power system operation risk assessment methods based on the condition maintenance take full consideration of the existing uncertain-ty in power grid operation, and describe the running risk level of the power grid comprehensively through the five risk index including the line overload, transformer overload, over voltage, low voltage and loss of load.The layer analysis method is applied to the calculation of the comprehensive risk index of power network, which provides a reference frame to the comparison of risk under different operating modes of power grid.Through the practical example analysis, this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the power system operation risk assessment method based on condition ma-intenance.