商业研究
商業研究
상업연구
COMMERCIAL RESEARCH
2015年
1期
85-90
,共6页
贸易结构%经济增长%外贸发展方式
貿易結構%經濟增長%外貿髮展方式
무역결구%경제증장%외무발전방식
trade structure%economic growth%foreign trade development pattern
本文构建了以工业制成品和初级品出口的相对比重衡量的贸易结构指标，通过格兰杰因果关系检验和协整回归分析，发现我国贸易结构和经济增长间存在正相关的单向因果关系，贸易结构每提高1个单位，实际GDP增长率提高0.01个单位，而经济增长对贸易结构的影响没有得到实证支持。因此，我国应加快贸易增长方式转变，逐步调整和优化贸易结构，进一步提高出口产品的技术含量和附件值。
本文構建瞭以工業製成品和初級品齣口的相對比重衡量的貿易結構指標，通過格蘭傑因果關繫檢驗和協整迴歸分析，髮現我國貿易結構和經濟增長間存在正相關的單嚮因果關繫，貿易結構每提高1箇單位，實際GDP增長率提高0.01箇單位，而經濟增長對貿易結構的影響沒有得到實證支持。因此，我國應加快貿易增長方式轉變，逐步調整和優化貿易結構，進一步提高齣口產品的技術含量和附件值。
본문구건료이공업제성품화초급품출구적상대비중형량적무역결구지표，통과격란걸인과관계검험화협정회귀분석，발현아국무역결구화경제증장간존재정상관적단향인과관계，무역결구매제고1개단위，실제GDP증장솔제고0.01개단위，이경제증장대무역결구적영향몰유득도실증지지。인차，아국응가쾌무역증장방식전변，축보조정화우화무역결구，진일보제고출구산품적기술함량화부건치。
The paper establishes the index of trade structure measured by the trade value of manufactured goods and pri-mary products.Through Granger causality test and regression analysis, the paper finds that there exists only a positive one-way causal relationship between trade structure and economic growth, the trade structure increases by one unit, real GDP growth rate increases 0.01 units, the influence of economic growth on the trade structure has not been supported by empirical analysis.Therefore, China should speed up the transformation of trade growth mode, gradually adjust and opti-mize trade structure to further improve technological content and added value of export products.
