CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于区域金融发展的综合指标体系，衡量了我国31个省市的金融发展水平，并利用Moran’ s I指数从全局和局部层面揭示了区域金融发展的空间关联性，从Bayes空间计量视角分析了区域金融发展与经济、政治、社会环境和地理位置等因素的关系。研究结果表明：我国金融发展表现为外生性引起的空间误差自相关；在同时将空间相关和空间异质性引入模型后，经济、政治和社会环境对区域金融发展都有一定的正向影响，但普通回归模型高估了空间相关和经济因素对金融发展的贡献程度，低估了政治和社会环境的贡献程度；区域金融发展存在明显的集聚性差异，东部地区的金融发展显著领先于其他区域，中部和西部地区之间无显著差异。
본문기우구역금융발전적종합지표체계，형량료아국31개성시적금융발전수평，병이용Moran’ s I지수종전국화국부층면게시료구역금융발전적공간관련성，종Bayes공간계량시각분석료구역금융발전여경제、정치、사회배경화지리위치등인소적관계。연구결과표명：아국금융발전표현위외생성인기적공간오차자상관；재동시장공간상관화공간이질성인입모형후，경제、정치화사회배경대구역금융발전도유일정적정향영향，단보통회귀모형고고료공간상관화경제인소대금융발전적공헌정도，저고료정치화사회배경적공헌정도；구역금융발전존재명현적집취성차이，동부지구적금융발전현저령선우기타구역，중부화서부지구지간무현저차이。
Based on the comprehensive index system of regional financial development, this paper measures the financial development level of 31 provinces of China, uses Moran′s index to reveal the spatial relevancy from overall and partial levels, and investigates the relationship between financial development and economy, politics, social environment and position by exploiting a series of spatial econometric models from a Bayesian perspective.The results show that the spatial correlation between financial development is caused by external shocks, which behaves as spatial errors autocorrelation. By including the spatial correlation and heterogeneity into the model, it′s found that economy, politics and social environ-ment have the positive effects on regional financial development, however, ordinary regression models overestimate the contribution of spatial correlation and economy to financial development, and underestimate the contribution of politics and social environment.Regional financial development exhibits agglomeration effects difference, which is shown by the fact that the development of the eastern region significantly exceeds the other areas, while there is no distinct difference between the middle and the western areas.