CAJ | 학술논문

可再生能源的间歇性和负荷的随机性对微电网能源管理系统（ EMS）产生了巨大的挑战。在随机环境下的能源优化调度问题在微电网的研究中具有重要意义。以微电网中光伏发电系统的功率预测为基础，将光伏预测误差当做随机变量，建立了一种基于期望模型的能源随机优化调度模型。用Monte Carlo模拟方法生成了光伏发电预测误差的情景集，应用粒子群优化算法来解决随机优化调度模型。通过与确定性模型产生的调度方案相对比，证明了随机优化调度模型更加有效。
가재생능원적간헐성화부하적수궤성대미전망능원관리계통（ EMS）산생료거대적도전。재수궤배경하적능원우화조도문제재미전망적연구중구유중요의의。이미전망중광복발전계통적공솔예측위기출，장광복예측오차당주수궤변량，건립료일충기우기망모형적능원수궤우화조도모형。용Monte Carlo모의방법생성료광복발전예측오차적정경집，응용입자군우화산법래해결수궤우화조도모형。통과여학정성모형산생적조도방안상대비，증명료수궤우화조도모형경가유효。
Intermittent and stochastic loads of renewable energy generate great challenges to micro-grid energy management systems( EMS ). Issue of energy optimal scheduling in research of micro-grid under stochastic environment has important meaning. An energy stochastic optimization scheduling model based on expectation model is set up by considering uncertainties associated with photovoltaic forecasting. A scenarios of photovoltaic forecasting error is generated Monte Carlo model approach is employed to characterize the random nature of uncertainty according to probability density function. Then,particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied to solve stochastic optimization scheduling model. Through comparing with scheduling scheme gemerated by deterministic model,the effectiveness of proposed stochastic optimization scheduling model is verified.