CAJ | 학술논문

人口结构变动是经济发展的必然趋势，其中，人口年龄结构的变动对经济发展的影响最为显著。本文从人口的视角，从供给和需求两个方面，用OLS回归分析法分析山东省人口年龄结构变动对经济增长产生的影响。得出以下结论：1）从供给的角度，劳动力利用率越高，越有利于经济发展，同时，老年抚养比与经济增长呈负相关，而少儿抚养比与经济增长呈正相关；2）从需求的角度，人均消费增加、人均教育支出增加促进经济增长，相反，人均卫生支出增加，老年抚养负担加重，抑制经济增长；3）政府对教育、卫生等基础公共行业支出增加，可减少居民的抚养负担。研究结果可为制定合理的区域发展政策和人口政策提供一定的理论基础和依据。
인구결구변동시경제발전적필연추세，기중，인구년령결구적변동대경제발전적영향최위현저。본문종인구적시각，종공급화수구량개방면，용OLS회귀분석법분석산동성인구년령결구변동대경제증장산생적영향。득출이하결론：1）종공급적각도，노동력이용솔월고，월유리우경제발전，동시，노년무양비여경제증장정부상관，이소인무양비여경제증장정정상관；2）종수구적각도，인균소비증가、인균교육지출증가촉진경제증장，상반，인균위생지출증가，노년무양부담가중，억제경제증장；3）정부대교육、위생등기출공공행업지출증가，가감소거민적무양부담。연구결과가위제정합리적구역발전정책화인구정책제공일정적이론기출화의거。
The change in population structure is the inevitable trend of economic development,and thechange of the population age structure has the most significant influence on economic development.In this paper,from a population perspective and the two aspects of supply and demand,we use OLS regression analysises toanalyze the impact on economic growth in Shandong Province from the change of population age structure.Thefollowing conclusions are obtained.1)From the aspect of supply,the higher labor utilization rate is,the moreconducive to economic development,besides,the elderly dependency ratio is negatively correlated with economicgrowth,while the youth dependency ratio is positively correlated with economic growth.2)From the aspect ofdemand,as per capita consumption increases,per capita expenditure on education to promote economic increasegrowth,on the contrary,as the per capita health expenditure increases,the elderly dependency burden restrainseconomic growth.3)It can reduce the burden of residents if the government’s spending on education,health andother public sector will be increasing.The study will provide a theoretical basis for establishing reasonable regionaldevelopment policy and the population policy.