哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版)
哈爾濱工業大學學報(社會科學版)
합이빈공업대학학보(사회과학판)
JOURNAL OF HARBIN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION)
2015年
1期
129-137
,共9页
生产大国%消费大国%传导机制%美国经验
生產大國%消費大國%傳導機製%美國經驗
생산대국%소비대국%전도궤제%미국경험
maj or manufacturing country%maj or consuming country%transmission mechanism%experience from the United States
中国是世界第二大经济体、第一大制造大国,但还不是消费大国。理论研究表明,生产大国向消费大国的传导机制有五个:第一,生产扩大导致居民收入上升从而促进消费;第二,生产扩大通过降低消费品价格促进消费;第三,生产扩大导致市场主体预期乐观从而形成生产与消费的良性循环;第四,生产扩大促进信贷发展进而促进生产和消费的良性循环;第五,生产扩大增加居民闲暇时间从而增加消费。美国经验表明,增加收入、降低消费品价格、提高消费者预期、增加新产品供给和增加居民闲暇时间是促进消费的主要因素,维持高消费率的主要因素是财富效应、消费者预期乐观和消费信贷的发展。需要切实提高居民收入、提高生产效率、降低消费品价格、稳定居民预期以及完善金融服务,积极促进中国从生产大国向消费大国的转变。
中國是世界第二大經濟體、第一大製造大國,但還不是消費大國。理論研究錶明,生產大國嚮消費大國的傳導機製有五箇:第一,生產擴大導緻居民收入上升從而促進消費;第二,生產擴大通過降低消費品價格促進消費;第三,生產擴大導緻市場主體預期樂觀從而形成生產與消費的良性循環;第四,生產擴大促進信貸髮展進而促進生產和消費的良性循環;第五,生產擴大增加居民閒暇時間從而增加消費。美國經驗錶明,增加收入、降低消費品價格、提高消費者預期、增加新產品供給和增加居民閒暇時間是促進消費的主要因素,維持高消費率的主要因素是財富效應、消費者預期樂觀和消費信貸的髮展。需要切實提高居民收入、提高生產效率、降低消費品價格、穩定居民預期以及完善金融服務,積極促進中國從生產大國嚮消費大國的轉變。
중국시세계제이대경제체、제일대제조대국,단환불시소비대국。이론연구표명,생산대국향소비대국적전도궤제유오개:제일,생산확대도치거민수입상승종이촉진소비;제이,생산확대통과강저소비품개격촉진소비;제삼,생산확대도치시장주체예기악관종이형성생산여소비적량성순배;제사,생산확대촉진신대발전진이촉진생산화소비적량성순배;제오,생산확대증가거민한가시간종이증가소비。미국경험표명,증가수입、강저소비품개격、제고소비자예기、증가신산품공급화증가거민한가시간시촉진소비적주요인소,유지고소비솔적주요인소시재부효응、소비자예기악관화소비신대적발전。수요절실제고거민수입、제고생산효솔、강저소비품개격、은정거민예기이급완선금융복무,적겁촉진중국종생산대국향소비대국적전변。
China is the world's second-largest economy,the biggest manufacturing country,but it's not a maj or consuming country.Theoretical studies have shown that the transmission mechanism from manufacturing country to consumption one includes:first,production expansion promotes con-sumption by increasing household income;second,production expansion promotes consumption by lowering the prices of consumer goods;third,production expansion helps form optimistic expectation of market subj ect to form a virtuous cycle of production and consumption;fourth,production expan-sion promotes the development of the credit to form a virtuous cycle of production and consumption;fifth,production expansion promotes consumption by increasing residents'leisure time.The experi-ence from the United States shows that the main factors to promote consumption is to increase resi-dents'income,to lower consumer goods price,to improve consumer expectations,to increase new product supply and increase the residents'leisure time.The main factors to maintain high consumption rate are wealth effect,consumers'optimistic expectation and the development of consumer credit.So, it is necessary to realize the transition from a maj or producer to a maj or consumer in China positively by increasing people's income,improving the production efficiency,reducing consumer goods prices, stabilizing residents'expectation and improving financial services.