CAJ | 학술논문

针对母线负荷量大面广，易受气象变化影响，且传统天气预报与母线负荷之间存在极为松散的地理对应关系，提出了基于数值天气预报和负荷分类的母线负荷预测。通过获取母线负荷所属行政区域，如县、乡或市辖区的地理位置，提取与母线地理位置紧密对应的高精度数值天气预报信息。通过研究母线负荷与气象因素的相关特性，构建了基于数值天气预报和负荷分类预测的母线负荷预测模型。通过对某省母线负荷进行分析预测，验证了该方法的实用、有效性。
침대모선부하량대면엄，역수기상변화영향，차전통천기예보여모선부하지간존재겁위송산적지리대응관계，제출료기우수치천기예보화부하분류적모선부하예측。통과획취모선부하소속행정구역，여현、향혹시할구적지리위치，제취여모선지리위치긴밀대응적고정도수치천기예보신식。통과연구모선부하여기상인소적상관특성，구건료기우수치천기예보화부하분류예측적모선부하예측모형。통과대모성모선부하진행분석예측，험증료해방법적실용、유효성。
In view of the bus load forecast features such as large amount and wide range,susceptibility to weather changes,plus a very loose geographical correspondence between traditional weather forecast and the bus load,a new bus load forecasting method based on numerical weather prediction and load classification is proposed.By learning about the respective location in the administrative area of bus load,such as counties,townships or municipal districts,the corresponding high precision numerical weather information is extracted.Moreover,by studying the bus load and meteorological factors related features,the bus load forecasting model is built based on load classification.The method has successfully been applied in a provincial bus load forecast.