CAJ | 학술논문

目前，基于年度变更平衡表对土地利用演变进行预测的研究较少。本文利用苏州市1998~2008年土地利用变更平衡表，运用Markov预测模型对全市土地利用结构变化进行模拟、检验和预测，并对苏州市土地利用结构何时达到稳定状态进行了探究。结果表明：基于变更平衡表，运用马尔科夫模型预测土地利用结构的方法是切实可行的；至2020年，苏州市农用地、农村居民点用地、未利用地面积逐年减少，且耕地面积减少最明显；城镇建设用地、独立工矿用地、交通运输用地面积逐年增加；到2042年，苏州市的土地利用结构将逐步趋于稳定。本文的研究对于土地利用年度变更平衡表的深入应用有一定的借鉴意义。
목전，기우년도변경평형표대토지이용연변진행예측적연구교소。본문이용소주시1998~2008년토지이용변경평형표，운용Markov예측모형대전시토지이용결구변화진행모의、검험화예측，병대소주시토지이용결구하시체도은정상태진행료탐구。결과표명：기우변경평형표，운용마이과부모형예측토지이용결구적방법시절실가행적；지2020년，소주시농용지、농촌거민점용지、미이용지면적축년감소，차경지면적감소최명현；성진건설용지、독립공광용지、교통운수용지면적축년증가；도2042년，소주시적토지이용결구장축보추우은정。본문적연구대우토지이용년도변경평형표적심입응용유일정적차감의의。
The study on land use structure prediction based on annual transfer balance table is less now. With the land use annual transfer balance table from 1998 to 2008 in Suzhou,we use Markov model to simulate,experiment and predict the change of the land use structure in the whole city. We also explore when the land use structure in Suzhou can reach a steady state. The results indicate that it is practical and feasible to use Markov model to predict the land use structure based on annual transfer balance table. By 2020,the area of agricultural land,rural residential area and the uncultivated land will reduce year by year. The cultivated land will reduce most obviously. On the contrary, the area of urban construction land,independent mine land,and land for transportation will increase year by year. The land use structure of Suzhou will be stable by 2042. The study is significant for the further applications of land use annual transfer balance table.