东南大学学报（英文版）
東南大學學報（英文版）
동남대학학보（영문판）
JOURNAL OF SOUTHEAST UNIVERSITY
2014年
4期
500-505
,共6页
家庭小汽车拥有%序次logistic回归模型%边际效应%家庭属性%社区属性
傢庭小汽車擁有%序次logistic迴歸模型%邊際效應%傢庭屬性%社區屬性
가정소기차옹유%서차logistic회귀모형%변제효응%가정속성%사구속성
household car ownership%ordered logistic regression model%marginal effect%household characteristics%neighborhood characteristics
基于南京市2012年居民出行调查数据，建立了能同时考虑家庭小汽车拥有量的离散属性和序次属性的序次logistic回归模型，对家庭小汽车拥有量进行预测。模型结果表明：一些家庭属性比如家庭驾照持有数量、收入水平和居住位置对家庭小汽车拥有量有显著的影响，而表征家庭所在社区街道模式的变量（交叉口密度）和表征家庭所在社区公共交通可达性的变量（是否在地铁站步行范围内及公共交通站点密度）对家庭小汽车拥有量的影响并不显著。模型总体拟合度γ2和模型检验结果均表明该模型总体表现良好。最后计算了所有显著的解释变量的边际效应，即解释变量1个单位变化能够引起的家庭小汽车拥有量概率的变化。
基于南京市2012年居民齣行調查數據，建立瞭能同時攷慮傢庭小汽車擁有量的離散屬性和序次屬性的序次logistic迴歸模型，對傢庭小汽車擁有量進行預測。模型結果錶明：一些傢庭屬性比如傢庭駕照持有數量、收入水平和居住位置對傢庭小汽車擁有量有顯著的影響，而錶徵傢庭所在社區街道模式的變量（交扠口密度）和錶徵傢庭所在社區公共交通可達性的變量（是否在地鐵站步行範圍內及公共交通站點密度）對傢庭小汽車擁有量的影響併不顯著。模型總體擬閤度γ2和模型檢驗結果均錶明該模型總體錶現良好。最後計算瞭所有顯著的解釋變量的邊際效應，即解釋變量1箇單位變化能夠引起的傢庭小汽車擁有量概率的變化。
기우남경시2012년거민출행조사수거，건립료능동시고필가정소기차옹유량적리산속성화서차속성적서차logistic회귀모형，대가정소기차옹유량진행예측。모형결과표명：일사가정속성비여가정가조지유수량、수입수평화거주위치대가정소기차옹유량유현저적영향，이표정가정소재사구가도모식적변량（교차구밀도）화표정가정소재사구공공교통가체성적변량（시부재지철참보행범위내급공공교통참점밀도）대가정소기차옹유량적영향병불현저。모형총체의합도γ2화모형검험결과균표명해모형총체표현량호。최후계산료소유현저적해석변량적변제효응，즉해석변량1개단위변화능구인기적가정소기차옹유량개솔적변화。
Considering both the discrete and ordered nature of the household car ownership an ordered logistic regression model to predict household car ownership is established by using the data of Nanjing Household Travel Survey in the year 2012. The model results show that some household characteristics such as the number of driver licenses household income and home location are significant.Yet the intersection density indicating the street patterns of home location and the dummy near the subway and the bus stop density indicating the transit accessibility of home location are insignificant.The model estimation obtains a good γ2 the goodness of fit of the model and the model validation also shows a good performance in prediction.The marginal effects of all the significant explanatory variables are calculated to quantify the odds change in the household car ownership following a one-unit change in the explanatory variables.
